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5 Things to Know Today: Oil Surges, Tariffs Land Tomorrow, Your Gas Tax Break Survives

  Monday, September 7, 2026 — Labour Day | Canadian Money Brief Markets are closed for the holiday, but the week ahead is loaded. Here are five things worth knowing before you head back to your desk tomorrow. 1. Oil Hits a Five-Week High as the Iran Conflict Escalates Crude climbed to $92.06 US/barrel on Saturday — up 17.75% over the past month and nearly 48% year over year — after Iran and the United States exchanged missile strikes this week. Israel's defence minister has threatened "crippling" attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, the EU has formally joined the US-led sanctions campaign, and US Vice President JD Vance said Washington won't hold peace talks until Iran stops targeting ships in the Strait of Hormuz. What it means for you: Even with the federal gas tax break extended (see #4), pump prices track the price of crude itself. If your tank's getting low, filling up early this week may beat whatever the Strait of Hormuz situation does to prices by...
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Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady, Signals Pause Amid Strong Economy

 

                                            Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% in its final policy decision of 2025, marking the beginning of what economists believe could be an extended pause in monetary policy adjustments. After a year of multiple rate cuts aimed at supporting growth, the central bank now appears confident that the current level is sufficient to balance inflation pressures with economic resilience.

Recent data has reinforced this stance. Canada’s economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.6% in the third quarter, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in November. Inflation also eased slightly, with October’s headline rate at 2.2%, down from 2.4% in September. These indicators suggest that the economy is performing better than anticipated, reducing the likelihood of further cuts in the near term.

Financial markets had already priced in a 93% chance of a rate hold, reflecting broad consensus among analysts that the Bank of Canada would step back after its easing cycle earlier this year. Governor Tiff Macklem previously signaled that rates were “at about the right level” to temper inflation without stalling growth.

The decision also comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares its own rate announcement, underscoring the interconnectedness of North American monetary policy. While the Fed is expected to continue easing, Canada’s stronger-than-expected data has shifted speculation toward whether the next move could eventually be a hike rather than another cut.

This pause marks a turning point in 2025’s monetary policy trajectory. Having lowered rates four times earlier in the year, the Bank of Canada now appears set to hold steady into 2026, giving policymakers time to assess whether inflation remains contained and growth sustainable.

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