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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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CAF Member Under Scrutiny for Alleged Intelligence Breach

 

Master Warrant Officer Matthew Shawn Robar is accused of passing sensitive secrets to a foreign entity.


A Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) member is facing serious allegations after reportedly leaking the identity of a soldier involved in covert intelligence operations. The disclosure, if confirmed, represents a significant breach of national security protocols and raises concerns about the protection of personnel engaged in sensitive missions.

Military officials have not released the names of those involved but confirmed that an internal investigation is underway. The alleged leak could compromise ongoing intelligence activities and place the affected soldier at risk, both personally and professionally.

Security experts emphasize that safeguarding the anonymity of intelligence operatives is critical to Canada’s defense strategy. Any breach of confidentiality undermines operational integrity and could have far-reaching consequences for allied cooperation.

The CAF has pledged full transparency in its inquiry while reaffirming its commitment to protecting the safety and security of its members.


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