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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Canada’s Job Market Gains Momentum as Unemployment Drops to 6.5%

 

In October, Canada gained 66,600 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 6.9 per cent. 

Canada’s labour market showed renewed strength in November, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.5% as the economy added 53,000 jobs. This marks a positive shift after months of slower employment growth, suggesting resilience despite global economic uncertainties.

Key Highlights:

  • Unemployment Rate: Down to 6.5%, the lowest in several months.
  • Job Creation: 53,000 new positions added, driven largely by full-time employment.
  • Sector Growth: Gains were seen in professional services, healthcare, and construction, reflecting strong demand across diverse industries.
  • Regional Trends: Ontario and British Columbia led the way in job creation, while some provinces experienced more modest growth.

Economic Context:

Analysts note that the increase in employment could ease concerns about consumer spending and economic slowdown. However, wage pressures and inflation remain challenges for policymakers. The Bank of Canada will likely weigh these labour market improvements when considering future interest rate decisions.

Overall, November’s data signals cautious optimism for Canada’s economy, with more Canadians finding work and unemployment trending downward.


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