Carney Tempers Expectations on U.S.-Canada Trade Talks

                                  Carney says U.S. tariff reprieve 'unlikely' to happen before CUSMA review talks.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has downplayed the likelihood of a near-term trade deal between Canada and the United States, signaling that any progress will likely be folded into the upcoming review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) scheduled for 2026.

Speaking at a press conference in Ottawa, Carney explained that efforts to secure sector-specific agreements—particularly in industries such as steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber—have stalled since U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly ended negotiations in October. The talks were derailed after Ontario aired a controversial anti-tariff advertisement featuring former President Ronald Reagan, which drew sharp criticism from Washington.

Carney emphasized that while Canada remains open to discussions, the timeline makes it improbable that a separate bilateral deal will be reached before the trilateral review. “We’re unlikely, given the time horizons coming together, to have a sectoral agreement,” he said, noting that tariff relief will now be addressed within the broader CUSMA framework.

The U.S. has raised concerns about Canadian policies on dairy, alcohol, and digital services, issues that are expected to dominate the review process. American trade officials have also pointed to provincial procurement measures and restrictions in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia as barriers to fair competition.

Despite these challenges, Carney expressed optimism about long-term cooperation, highlighting “tremendous benefits” if Canada and the U.S. can work together in key economic sectors. However, for now, businesses on both sides of the border will need to brace for continued uncertainty, as tariffs remain in place and sectoral deals appear off the table.