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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...

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EU Locks Russian Assets, Paving Way for Ukraine Loan

 

                Ukraine's president says it is right for Russia's frozen assets to be used to rebuild his country.


The European Union has reached a landmark decision to indefinitely freeze Russian central bank assets worth approximately €210 billion ($246 billion), a move that clears the path for a major financial lifeline to Ukraine.

Previously, the freeze had to be renewed every six months, leaving it vulnerable to political challenges from member states with closer ties to Moscow, such as Hungary and Slovakia. By shifting to an indefinite immobilization, the EU removes the risk of assets being returned to Russia due to internal dissent. This decision was made under Article 122 of the EU treaties, which allows for qualified majority voting rather than unanimity, ensuring the measure’s durability.

The bulk of the frozen funds—about €185 billion—are held in Belgian clearinghouse Euroclear, and EU leaders intend to leverage these assets to secure a loan package for Ukraine. Kyiv urgently needs financial support, with estimates suggesting it requires €135.7 billion over the next two years to sustain its economy and military efforts against Russia’s ongoing invasion.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hailed the move as a decisive step to ensure Ukraine remains financed and capable of resisting Moscow’s aggression. Russia, however, has condemned the measure as theft, with its central bank already pursuing legal action against Euroclear in Moscow courts.

This decision marks a significant escalation in the EU’s economic strategy against Russia, signaling that frozen sovereign assets will remain inaccessible until the war ends and reparations are addressed. For Ukraine, it represents a crucial breakthrough in securing long-term financial stability.

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