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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Liberal Ranks Grow as Michael Ma Joins Carney’s Team

 

                Markham-Unionville MP Michael Ma crossed the floor to join the Liberals on Thursday.


In a dramatic political shift on Parliament Hill, Michael Ma, the Member of Parliament for Markham–Unionville, announced on December 11, 2025, that he is leaving the Conservative caucus to sit with the Liberals. His decision follows weeks of consultation with constituents and family, and comes on the heels of Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont’s defection last month.

Ma explained that his move was motivated by a desire for “unity and decisive action for Canada’s future.” He praised Prime Minister Mark Carney’s leadership, describing it as a steady and practical approach to tackling pressing issues such as affordability, economic growth, community safety, and opportunities for young families.

The floor-crossing is politically significant: the Liberals now hold 171 seats, just one short of a majority in the House of Commons. This strengthens Carney’s hand in advancing his legislative agenda and signals growing cracks within the Conservative ranks.

Ma’s personal story adds weight to his decision. Having immigrated to Canada at age twelve as the youngest of seven children, he emphasized values of hard work, resilience, and building opportunities for others—principles he believes align more closely with the Liberal vision at this time.

The move underscores a broader trend of instability within the Conservative caucus. Alongside d’Entremont’s earlier departure, Ma’s defection raises questions about the party’s internal cohesion and its ability to present a united front against the governing Liberals.

For Carney, the addition of Ma is both symbolic and strategic. It bolsters the Liberals’ numbers in Parliament and sends a message of momentum as the government seeks to consolidate power. For the Conservatives, however, it represents another high-profile loss that could deepen internal divisions and prompt further soul-searching about the party’s direction.


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