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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Russia Deploys Submarine as U.S.–Venezuela Tanker Standoff Escalates

 

The ship, currently between Iceland and the British Isles, has been accused of breaking US sanctions and shipping Iranian oil. It has historically transported Venezuelan crude oil.


Russia has sent a submarine and additional naval vessels to escort an oil tanker that the United States attempted to seize near Venezuela, escalating an already tense maritime confrontation. The tanker, recently renamed Marinera, was approached by a U.S. Coast Guard cutter as part of Washington’s efforts to disrupt sanctioned oil shipments linked to Venezuela.

Russian officials framed their naval deployment as a protective measure for a vessel they now consider under their jurisdiction. Footage released by Russian media showed the U.S. cutter shadowing the tanker as it continued its voyage after failing to load crude in Venezuelan waters.

The move highlights the growing geopolitical friction surrounding Venezuela’s oil trade, where U.S. sanctions and Russia’s support for Caracas frequently collide. Naval escorts of this nature are rare, and analysts say the involvement of a submarine signals Moscow’s willingness to challenge U.S. enforcement efforts more directly.

As the tanker proceeds across the Atlantic, both nations appear determined to stand firm, raising concerns about further escalation at sea.


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