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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Wall Street Pulls Back as Investors Weigh Potential Fed Shift

 



U.S. stock futures slipped as traders assessed the market impact of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh emerging as President Donald Trump’s preferred pick to lead the central bank. The possibility of a policy shift under new leadership added a layer of uncertainty to an already sensitive market environment.

Market Movement

  • Dow futures edged lower, reflecting broad investor caution.
  • S&P 500 futures also dipped, signaling a softer open for large‑cap equities.
  • Nasdaq futures fell more sharply as tech stocks continued to face pressure.

Why Warsh’s Name Matters

Warsh has long been viewed as more hawkish than recent Fed leadership, though he has recently echoed Trump’s calls for rate cuts. That combination — a history of tighter policy paired with openness to easing — leaves investors unsure how he might steer the Fed at a time when markets crave clarity.

The Broader Mood

With economic data mixed and geopolitical tensions simmering, traders are reacting quickly to any hint of change at the central bank. Warsh’s potential nomination adds another variable to a market already navigating shifting expectations.


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