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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Canada’s Labour Market Contracts as Job Losses Hide a Falling Unemployment Rate

Workers inspect sheets of stainless steel after being pressed from coils, at Magna Stainless and Aluminum in Montreal

Canada’s economy lost 25,000 jobs in January, yet the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 6.5%, a shift driven largely by fewer people actively seeking work rather than by employment growth.

The decline in unemployment was tied to a shrinking labour force, as participation fell and fewer Canadians remained engaged in job searches. Economists note that this can make the labour market appear healthier than it truly is, masking underlying weakness.

Job losses were spread across multiple sectors, with part‑time employment seeing notable declines even as full‑time positions rose modestly. Analysts warn that the combination of job losses and reduced labour force participation points to softening economic momentum, especially as high interest rates continue to weigh on hiring and consumer activity.

January’s data highlights the complexity of Canada’s economic landscape: fewer jobs, fewer job seekers, and a headline unemployment rate that doesn’t tell the full story.


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