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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Quebec’s Groundhog Fred Signals an Early Spring

 

Shubenacadie Sam exits her burrow at a Groundhog Day event at the Shubenacadie Wildlife Park in Nova Scotia on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2025. Sam saw her shadow and predicts six more weeks of winter. 


Quebec’s beloved weather‑predicting groundhog, Fred la Marmotte, delivered welcome news this morning after emerging from his burrow and not seeing his shadow—an outcome traditionally interpreted as a sign that spring will arrive ahead of schedule.

The annual Groundhog Day event in Val-d’Espoir drew crowds despite chilly temperatures, with spectators eager to hear Fred’s forecast. According to folklore, a shadowless emergence means winter’s grip is loosening, offering hope for milder days sooner than expected. Local organizers celebrated the prediction, noting that Fred’s early‑spring call has become a cherished tradition for families across the province.

While meteorologists remind Canadians that groundhog predictions are more symbolic than scientific, the ritual remains a joyful midwinter moment—one that gives people a reason to smile as they look forward to brighter, warmer days.


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