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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Russia Urges Restraint as U.S. Military Buildup Heightens Iran Tensions

 

                                           The impressive USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier. 


Growing friction in the Middle East has prompted Russia to issue a stark warning about what it calls an “unprecedented escalation of tension” surrounding Iran. Moscow’s remarks come as the United States significantly increases its military presence in the region, a move American officials say will be fully in place by mid‑March. 

Russian officials have called on all parties—particularly Iran and the United States—to exercise restraint. Despite staging joint naval drills with Tehran, the Kremlin insists these exercises were pre‑planned and should not be interpreted as provocative. 

The U.S., meanwhile, has issued renewed warnings to Iran following stalled nuclear discussions, signaling that failure to reach a diplomatic agreement could lead to military action. This comes as Iran and Russia conduct joint naval operations in the Sea of Oman, intended to deter unilateral moves in the region. 

Amid these developments, Russia, China, and Iran have also carried out coordinated naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway critical to global energy supplies. The drills underscore the shifting military dynamics as Washington continues to bolster its forces across the Middle East.


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