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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Slovakia Warns of Power Cut to Ukraine Amid Dispute Over Russian Oil Transit

                                            Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico

A diplomatic rift has emerged between Slovakia and Ukraine after Bratislava warned it may halt electricity exports to its eastern neighbor unless Kyiv resumes the flow of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline. The dispute centers on transit fees and operational conditions that Ukraine oversees as the pipeline crosses its territory.

Slovakia, heavily dependent on Russian crude for its key refinery in Bratislava, argues that any disruption threatens its energy security and economy. Ukrainian officials, however, maintain that their actions comply with existing regulations and reflect broader efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy amid the ongoing conflict.

The standoff highlights the fragile interdependence of Central and Eastern European energy networks, where electricity and oil supplies often cross multiple borders. EU officials have urged both sides to de‑escalate and seek a technical solution that avoids further strain on regional energy stability.

While no cutoff has occurred, the warning underscores how energy infrastructure remains entangled with geopolitical pressures, even as Europe continues its long-term shift away from Russian resources.


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