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Ottawa's Parliament Hill, where the Carney government is rolling out Canada's largest fiscal stimulus package since 1980. / Photo: Unsplash. MoneySavings.ca  ·  Economy & Policy Monday, April 13, 2026  ·  Daily Edition Canada at a crossroads: oil shock, frozen rates, and a trade deal on the clock Canada's economy is navigating a uniquely complicated moment in 2026. A Middle East conflict has sent oil prices surging past US$104 a barrel, a once-in-a-generation fiscal stimulus package is being rolled out in Ottawa, and the clock is ticking on a renegotiation of Canada's most important trade agreement. For everyday Canadians, this means uncertainty at the gas pump, a central bank with limited room to cut rates, and a federal government betting big on public spending to kick-start growth. Here is what you need to know about the forces shaping the Canadian economy right now. 1. The Bank of Canada is stuck — and oil is why The Bank of Canada has held it...
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Bank of Canada Holds Steady as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Concerns

 

                            A cyclist rides past the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada May 8, 2025.

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its key interest rate steady as policymakers weigh rising inflation risks driven by surging oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Economists note that while inflation remains near the midpoint of the target range, geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy costs are adding new pressure to the outlook. 

The Bank of Canada is poised to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, even as global tensions push oil prices higher and raise fresh concerns about inflation. Analysts expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged at its March meeting, emphasizing caution amid geopolitical instability and volatile energy markets. 

Canada’s inflation rate currently sits near 2%, comfortably within the Bank’s target range. However, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East—particularly disruptions affecting oil supply—has driven crude prices sharply upward, increasing the risk of future inflationary pressure. Policymakers are expected to acknowledge these risks while signaling that the current rate remains appropriate for supporting a fragile economy. 

Economists note that while Canada, as a net oil exporter, may be somewhat insulated from global price shocks, consumers could still feel the impact of higher energy costs in the months ahead. The Bank’s decision reflects a balancing act between maintaining economic stability and preparing for potential inflation flare-ups tied to geopolitical uncertainty.


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