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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...

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Deadly Overnight Raid Deepens Israel–Lebanon Tensions

 

Rubble lies after an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs, following an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel.

Israel conducted a rare airborne operation in eastern Lebanon overnight, deploying troops near the town of Nabi Chit in the Bekaa Valley. The raid coincided with heavy Israeli airstrikes across the region, leaving 16 people dead and dozens wounded, according to Lebanese state media and health officials. 

Residents reported that Israeli helicopters dropped soldiers into the area, prompting exchanges of fire with Hezbollah fighters before the troops withdrew under continued bombardment. The incident comes amid escalating hostilities following Hezbollah’s recent rocket and drone attacks on Israel, drawing Lebanon deeper into the widening regional conflict. 


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