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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Energy Security Concerns Rise After Strikes Hit UAE Infrastructure

Smoke rises in the Fujairah oil industry zone, caused by debris after interception of a drone by air defenses, according to the Fujairah media office, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, March 14, 2026.

A series of attacks targeting key energy sites in the United Arab Emirates has intensified concerns over the stability of global energy supplies. Strikes on the Fujairah port—one of the world’s most important oil hubs—along with disruptions at the Shah gas field have added new pressure to already‑strained markets.

Fujairah, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, is a strategic export point designed to bypass one of the world’s most vulnerable maritime chokepoints. Any threat to its operations reverberates quickly through global oil markets. Meanwhile, the Shah gas field, a major producer of sour gas essential to the UAE’s domestic energy mix, has faced operational interruptions following reported attacks.

These incidents come at a time when geopolitical tensions are already driving volatility in energy prices. Analysts warn that continued instability could force regional producers to reassess security protocols and potentially reduce output, tightening global supply even further.

While the UAE has not disclosed full details of the damage, officials have emphasized that contingency plans are in place to maintain exports and stabilize the market. Still, the events underscore the fragility of critical energy infrastructure in a region where political and military tensions remain high.

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