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BoC Opens the Door to Rate Hikes: What It Means for Your Mortgage

  Published September 4, 2026 The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh straight hold — but Governor Tiff Macklem didn't sound like a central banker done for the year. He told reporters the Bank is "prepared to raise interest rates, and if it takes more than one increase, we're prepared to do that," if inflation stays too high. That's a real shift in tone, and it lands right as a wave of Canadians hit their mortgage renewal date. Here's what changed, who's forecasting what, and what it actually means for your payment. Why the Bank Suddenly Sounds Hawkish Canada's annual inflation rate has climbed to around 3% — a full point above the Bank's 2% target — and the Bank is pointing squarely at energy prices. Oil has stayed elevated because of the Iran conflict and disruption near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing gas prices up and dragging headline CPI with it. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is still s...
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Escalating Conflict Disrupts Global Oil Stability

 

A tanker is damaged after catching fire in Iraqi waters following an attack, according to Iraqi port officials, near Basra, Iraq on Thursday.


Two oil tankers were set ablaze in Iraqi waters after suspected Iranian explosive-laden boats struck the vessels, marking a sharp escalation in regional hostilities and raising fears of a prolonged economic shock. 

Regional Impact and Global Stakes

  • Iran’s Strategy: The attacks appear to be part of a broader campaign targeting oil and transport infrastructure across the Middle East, signaling Iran’s intent to pressure global markets and challenge U.S. claims of strategic dominance. 
  • Economic Shockwaves: Oil prices surged above £100 a barrel following the strikes, with Iran warning the world to prepare for prices potentially reaching $200 a barrel. Such volatility threatens to ripple through global supply chains and energy markets. 
  • Casualties and Damage: At least one crew member was killed, and multiple vessels have been hit in recent weeks, underscoring the growing danger to maritime operations in the region. 

A Conflict Far From Contained

The attacks come amid a broader U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, with nearly two weeks of hostilities resulting in thousands of casualties and widespread infrastructure damage. As tensions continue to rise, the risk of further disruptions to global oil supplies remains high. 


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