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Markets Slip as Investors Bet on Extended U.S.–Iran Ceasefire

  Stocks Edge Lower as Investors Hope U.S.–Iran Ceasefire Will Hold Stocks drifted lower today as markets balanced cautious optimism over a potential extension of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire with persistent geopolitical and inflation concerns. Recent trading sessions have shown that even modest signs of diplomatic progress can meaningfully shift investor sentiment. Asian and U.S. markets rallied earlier this week on hopes that Washington and Tehran would continue negotiations, helping unwind some of the war-driven risk premiums that had pushed oil and volatility higher. Despite the pullback, investors remain hopeful that the ceasefire—currently set to expire soon—will be extended, giving negotiators more time to work toward a longer-term agreement. Reports indicate both sides are considering adding another two weeks to the pause, a move that has already helped push Brent crude below the recent peak of nearly US$120 per barrel. Lower oil prices have eased pressure on inflation expecta...
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Gulf Tensions Escalate as Iran Strikes Kuwait Refinery and Israel Targets IRGC Spokesman

            Fires broke out at Kuwait's Mina al-Ahmadi refinery after it was hit by Iranian drone attacks.

A sharp escalation in the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran unfolded on Friday as Iran launched a strike on Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery, igniting a major fire and intensifying fears of regional energy instability.  At the same time, Israel carried out a deadly operation that killed Ali Mohammad Naini, the spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike. 

The refinery attack follows a series of Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure, including a recent hit on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, which analysts warn could leave global natural gas supplies strained for years.  Israel, meanwhile, has pledged to avoid further attacks on Iran’s South Pars gas field after Tehran’s retaliation caused significant damage earlier in the week. 

As fires burned across key energy sites and oil prices stabilized around $110 per barrel after a sharp surge, concerns mounted over the potential for a global economic shock should the conflict continue to disrupt vital energy corridors.  The IRGC condemned the killing of Naini as a “cowardly terrorist attack,” vowing continued missile production despite the intensifying conflict. 

The latest developments underscore a rapidly widening confrontation with no clear end in sight, raising alarms across global markets and diplomatic circles.

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