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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Gulf Tensions Surge as Iran Threatens Regional Energy and Water Infrastructure

 

Streaks of light illuminate the sky during an interception attempt amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, as seen from Tel Aviv, Israel, March 23, 2026. 


Iran has issued a stark warning that it may target energy and water infrastructure across Gulf nations if the United States proceeds with a threatened strike on Iran’s electricity grid. The warning follows President Donald Trump’s ultimatum that Washington could hit Iran’s power network within 48 hours, sharply escalating an already volatile regional conflict.

Rising Regional Stakes

Tehran’s threat marks a significant escalation, signaling that any U.S. attack could trigger widespread disruption in a region heavily dependent on interconnected energy and desalination systems. Iranian officials stated they would retaliate by crippling Gulf states’ critical infrastructure, including facilities in Qatar and other neighboring countries. 

Broader Conflict Context

The warning comes amid ongoing hostilities involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, with recent missile exchanges heightening fears of a broader regional war. Reports indicate that energy facilities have already come under fire during the conflict, and Gulf nations are bracing for potential large-scale disruptions. 


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