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Ottawa's Parliament Hill, where the Carney government is rolling out Canada's largest fiscal stimulus package since 1980. / Photo: Unsplash. MoneySavings.ca  ·  Economy & Policy Monday, April 13, 2026  ·  Daily Edition Canada at a crossroads: oil shock, frozen rates, and a trade deal on the clock Canada's economy is navigating a uniquely complicated moment in 2026. A Middle East conflict has sent oil prices surging past US$104 a barrel, a once-in-a-generation fiscal stimulus package is being rolled out in Ottawa, and the clock is ticking on a renegotiation of Canada's most important trade agreement. For everyday Canadians, this means uncertainty at the gas pump, a central bank with limited room to cut rates, and a federal government betting big on public spending to kick-start growth. Here is what you need to know about the forces shaping the Canadian economy right now. 1. The Bank of Canada is stuck — and oil is why The Bank of Canada has held it...
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Historic Oil Shock: IEA Warns of Record Supply Disruption Amid Middle East Conflict



The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stark warning that the ongoing Middle East war has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history. According to the agency’s latest assessments, global oil supply is expected to plunge by 8 million barrels per day in March, driven largely by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for Gulf exports. 

The conflict has forced major Gulf producers to cut output by at least 10 million barrels per day, representing nearly 10% of global demand. This unprecedented supply shock has prompted the IEA and its member nations to coordinate a record release of strategic oil reserves, aiming to stabilize markets and curb soaring prices. 

Analysts warn that without a rapid restoration of shipping flows, the disruption could deepen, prolonging volatility in global energy markets. The IEA’s revised outlook sharply contrasts with earlier expectations of a supply surplus, underscoring the scale and speed at which the conflict has reshaped the oil landscape. 

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