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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Historic Oil Shock: IEA Warns of Record Supply Disruption Amid Middle East Conflict



The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stark warning that the ongoing Middle East war has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history. According to the agency’s latest assessments, global oil supply is expected to plunge by 8 million barrels per day in March, driven largely by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for Gulf exports. 

The conflict has forced major Gulf producers to cut output by at least 10 million barrels per day, representing nearly 10% of global demand. This unprecedented supply shock has prompted the IEA and its member nations to coordinate a record release of strategic oil reserves, aiming to stabilize markets and curb soaring prices. 

Analysts warn that without a rapid restoration of shipping flows, the disruption could deepen, prolonging volatility in global energy markets. The IEA’s revised outlook sharply contrasts with earlier expectations of a supply surplus, underscoring the scale and speed at which the conflict has reshaped the oil landscape. 

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