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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Iran Signals Harder Line as Mediation Efforts Intensify

 

              An Iranian cleric visits the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force Museum in Tehran.

Iran has adopted a noticeably tougher stance in ongoing diplomatic discussions, according to sources familiar with the talks, even as multiple international actors attempt to mediate rising tensions in the region.

Diplomats say Tehran has increased its demands and is showing less flexibility than in earlier rounds, a shift that has complicated efforts by mediators seeking to de‑escalate regional friction. While the details of the negotiations remain confidential, officials suggest Iran is leveraging its position amid heightened geopolitical pressure.

Mediation efforts by several countries continue, but progress has slowed. Analysts note that Iran’s firmer posture may be aimed at strengthening its bargaining power or responding to domestic political considerations.

Despite the challenges, negotiators remain cautiously hopeful that dialogue will continue, emphasizing that diplomatic channels are still open.


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