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BoC Opens the Door to Rate Hikes: What It Means for Your Mortgage

  Published September 4, 2026 The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh straight hold — but Governor Tiff Macklem didn't sound like a central banker done for the year. He told reporters the Bank is "prepared to raise interest rates, and if it takes more than one increase, we're prepared to do that," if inflation stays too high. That's a real shift in tone, and it lands right as a wave of Canadians hit their mortgage renewal date. Here's what changed, who's forecasting what, and what it actually means for your payment. Why the Bank Suddenly Sounds Hawkish Canada's annual inflation rate has climbed to around 3% — a full point above the Bank's 2% target — and the Bank is pointing squarely at energy prices. Oil has stayed elevated because of the Iran conflict and disruption near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing gas prices up and dragging headline CPI with it. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is still s...
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Iran Warns of Regional Oil Blockade Amid Escalating Conflict

 

The war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving tankers unable to sail for more than a week and forcing producers to halt pumping as storage facilities fill.


Iran has issued a stark warning that it will block all oil exports from the Middle East if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue, marking a sharp escalation in an already volatile regional conflict. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared it would not allow “one litre of oil” to leave the region under ongoing military pressure, a move that could severely disrupt global energy markets. 

The threat comes as the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints—faces shutdown conditions, leaving tankers stranded and producers halting output as storage fills. Global oil prices initially surged past $100 per barrel before retreating amid mixed signals from U.S. President Donald Trump, who warned Iran of massive retaliation while predicting a swift end to the conflict. 

The heightened tensions have triggered widespread geopolitical alarm, with markets reacting sharply and regional actors bracing for further instability. As both sides exchange threats and military strikes intensify, the prospect of a prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern oil exports looms large.

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