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Markets Slip as Investors Bet on Extended U.S.–Iran Ceasefire

  Stocks Edge Lower as Investors Hope U.S.–Iran Ceasefire Will Hold Stocks drifted lower today as markets balanced cautious optimism over a potential extension of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire with persistent geopolitical and inflation concerns. Recent trading sessions have shown that even modest signs of diplomatic progress can meaningfully shift investor sentiment. Asian and U.S. markets rallied earlier this week on hopes that Washington and Tehran would continue negotiations, helping unwind some of the war-driven risk premiums that had pushed oil and volatility higher. Despite the pullback, investors remain hopeful that the ceasefire—currently set to expire soon—will be extended, giving negotiators more time to work toward a longer-term agreement. Reports indicate both sides are considering adding another two weeks to the pause, a move that has already helped push Brent crude below the recent peak of nearly US$120 per barrel. Lower oil prices have eased pressure on inflation expecta...
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Iran Warns of Regional Oil Blockade Amid Escalating Conflict

 

The war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving tankers unable to sail for more than a week and forcing producers to halt pumping as storage facilities fill.


Iran has issued a stark warning that it will block all oil exports from the Middle East if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue, marking a sharp escalation in an already volatile regional conflict. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared it would not allow “one litre of oil” to leave the region under ongoing military pressure, a move that could severely disrupt global energy markets. 

The threat comes as the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints—faces shutdown conditions, leaving tankers stranded and producers halting output as storage fills. Global oil prices initially surged past $100 per barrel before retreating amid mixed signals from U.S. President Donald Trump, who warned Iran of massive retaliation while predicting a swift end to the conflict. 

The heightened tensions have triggered widespread geopolitical alarm, with markets reacting sharply and regional actors bracing for further instability. As both sides exchange threats and military strikes intensify, the prospect of a prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern oil exports looms large.

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