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The Fed Decides Wednesday — Here's What It Means for Your Mortgage, the Loonie, and Your RRSP

  Monday, July 27, 2026 The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on July 29. For most Canadians it will feel like background noise. It isn't — here's the plain-language version of why it touches your mortgage, your cross-border spending, and whatever's sitting in your RRSP. The short version: Markets are pricing roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. That's not the story. The story is that this is one of the least certain "sure thing" holds in years — and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET could matter more than the decision itself. Why this meeting is different The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% through every meeting so far in 2026. On paper, Wednesday should be more of the same. Under the hood, it's messier. Persistent inflation, running well above the Fed's 2% target for a fifth straight year, has kept a rate hike on the table. The oil-...
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Market Turmoil as Iran Conflict Drives Energy Prices Higher

 

 The Strait of Hormuz, considered the most critical oil chokepoint in the world, is in focus amid Iran clash.


Energy markets are surging while global stocks and bonds retreat, reflecting deepening investor anxiety over a potentially prolonged conflict involving Iran. Oil prices have jumped sharply following U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iran’s retaliatory attacks, with disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical oil transit points—raising fears of sustained supply shortages. Analysts warn that even though Iran accounts for a modest share of global oil production, its strategic position could push prices toward the $100-per-barrel mark if instability continues. 

The conflict has already slowed shipping traffic through the Strait, prompting tanker owners to pause operations and adding further pressure to energy markets. This tightening supply has driven crude oil up more than 13% in recent days, amplifying concerns about global inflation and economic strain.

Financial markets are reacting swiftly. Stock futures have plunged as investors brace for extended geopolitical uncertainty, while bond markets are also weakening amid expectations of higher energy costs and potential economic fallout. With President Donald Trump indicating that military operations may continue for weeks, traders are preparing for volatility across commodities and equities alike. 


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