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Monday’s CPI Could Decide Your Next Mortgage Payment

  Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September. Inflation is sitting at 3%. The Bank of Canada has to decide on October 28 which of those facts matters more, and on Monday morning one more number lands to help it choose. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal this winter, that number has a price tag. Two reports pulling in opposite directions The jobs data came first. Statistics Canada reported on October 9 that employment fell by 68,000 in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.4%. It followed a drop of about 42,000 in August, which means more than half of the 181,000 jobs gained between April and July have now been wiped out. Ontario shed 20,000 positions on its own. Markets reacted within hours: the odds of a quarter-point Bank of Canada hike on October 28 dropped to roughly 25% from about 40%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. Inflation is telling the opposite story. The consumer price index rose 3.0% year over year in August, matching Ju...
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Market Turmoil as Iran Conflict Drives Energy Prices Higher

 

 The Strait of Hormuz, considered the most critical oil chokepoint in the world, is in focus amid Iran clash.


Energy markets are surging while global stocks and bonds retreat, reflecting deepening investor anxiety over a potentially prolonged conflict involving Iran. Oil prices have jumped sharply following U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iran’s retaliatory attacks, with disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical oil transit points—raising fears of sustained supply shortages. Analysts warn that even though Iran accounts for a modest share of global oil production, its strategic position could push prices toward the $100-per-barrel mark if instability continues. 

The conflict has already slowed shipping traffic through the Strait, prompting tanker owners to pause operations and adding further pressure to energy markets. This tightening supply has driven crude oil up more than 13% in recent days, amplifying concerns about global inflation and economic strain.

Financial markets are reacting swiftly. Stock futures have plunged as investors brace for extended geopolitical uncertainty, while bond markets are also weakening amid expectations of higher energy costs and potential economic fallout. With President Donald Trump indicating that military operations may continue for weeks, traders are preparing for volatility across commodities and equities alike. 


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