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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds Near 80%, Oil Tops US$100, Loonie Hits 5-Week High

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Saturday, October 24, 2026 The Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates on Wednesday, oil is back above US$100 and stocks slipped on AI worries. Here are the five things to know this Saturday, and what each one means for your wallet. 1 The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hike on Wednesday Markets are putting roughly an 80% chance on a quarter-point increase at the Bank of Canada’s Oct. 28 decision, which would lift the policy rate from 2.25% to 2.50%. A majority of economists polled by Reuters also expect a second hike by the end of March. The shift followed hawkish comments from Governor Tiff Macklem about a higher inflation outlook driven by oil. What it means for you Every 0.25-point increase adds about $250 a year (roughly $21 a month) for each $100,000 of prime-linked debt, such as a variable-rate mortgage or HELOC. Fixed-rate holders are not hit directly, but renewals are being priced off higher bond yields. Savers may see HISA and...
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Markets Look Past Rhetoric as Investors Bet on Quick De‑Escalation

A banner of Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei with late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and late supreme leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini on a building in Tehran

Global markets showed surprising resilience as traders increasingly priced in the possibility that the U.S.–Iran conflict may cool sooner than the heated rhetoric suggests. Despite sharp warnings from both Washington and Tehran, investors appear convinced that neither side is seeking a prolonged confrontation.

A Market Leaning Toward Optimism

Equities held steady and oil prices eased as traders interpreted recent statements from U.S. officials—including President Trump’s suggestion that the situation could be contained—as signs that diplomacy may still be in play. The market’s reaction reflects a broader belief that both nations have incentives to avoid a drawn‑out conflict that could destabilize the global economy.

But Risks Haven’t Disappeared

Even with this cautious optimism, investors remain alert. Any sudden escalation—whether through military action, cyberattacks, or disruptions to oil infrastructure—could quickly reverse sentiment. The Middle East remains a critical energy hub, and markets are highly sensitive to any hint of supply risk.

Why Investors Are Betting on Stability

  • Economic self‑interest: A prolonged conflict would strain both countries’ economies.
  • Market behavior: Historically, markets often stabilize quickly unless a conflict expands dramatically.
  • Signals from officials: Despite strong language, neither side has taken steps suggesting a full‑scale war is imminent.

The Bottom Line

Markets are effectively calling the bluff on the harsh rhetoric, wagering that cooler heads will prevail. But with tensions still high, this optimism rests on a fragile foundation—one unexpected incident could shift the narrative in an instant.


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