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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Regional Conflict Escalates as Israeli Strikes Intensify Across Iran and Lebanon

            Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in the Dahiyeh area of Beirut, Thursday, March 5, 2026. 



Israeli airstrikes have sharply intensified across Iran and Lebanon, marking one of the most volatile escalations in the region in years. According to multiple reports, Israeli forces launched broad-scale strikes on the capitals of both countries, while the United States simultaneously targeted an Iranian drone carrier at sea, signaling a coordinated surge in military pressure.

Iran responded with new retaliatory attacks early Friday, firing missiles and drones toward neighboring states that host U.S. forces. The exchange comes at the end of a full week of bombardment that has destabilized multiple fronts across the Middle East. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that the bombardment is “about to surge dramatically,” underscoring Washington’s expectation of further escalation. 

Israeli officials claim that much of Iran’s air-defense infrastructure and missile launch systems have already been destroyed, though independent verification remains limited. Meanwhile, smoke and destruction were reported in central Tehran and Beirut as civilians sought shelter from the ongoing strikes. With no signs of de-escalation, regional tensions continue to mount, raising concerns about a broader conflict drawing in additional actors. 

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