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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Rising CRA Scrutiny: Four Audit Hot Spots Canadians Should Watch



Canadian taxpayers and business owners are facing a period of heightened enforcement as the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) expands its audit activity. Recent shifts show a clear pattern: the CRA is leaning more heavily on data matching, AI‑driven analytics, and strengthened legislative powers to identify inconsistencies and pursue non‑compliance. Four areas, in particular, are drawing increased attention.

1. Inconsistent Revenue Reporting

The CRA is closely comparing GST/HST filings with corporate income tax returns, and mismatches are one of the fastest triggers for an audit. When sales reported for GST/HST don’t align with income tax filings, the CRA flags the discrepancy for review. 

2. Expense Claims That Don’t Match Business Activity

Expense claims that appear unusually high relative to revenue are under sharper scrutiny. The CRA is using benchmarking tools to compare businesses within the same industry, making outlier claims more visible than ever. 

3. Capital Gains Reporting

Even though proposed changes to the capital gains inclusion rate were cancelled, the CRA has significantly increased enforcement around capital gains reporting. This includes verifying the accuracy of reported dispositions, adjusted cost bases, and compliance with the 50% inclusion rate. 

4. International and Cryptocurrency Holdings

Expanded audit powers now give the CRA more tools to verify offshore assets, foreign income, and cryptocurrency transactions. These areas are a priority as new legislative proposals strengthen the CRA’s ability to demand information and penalize non‑cooperation. 

Why This Matters

The CRA’s audit posture for 2025–2026 reflects a broader shift toward stronger enforcement, supported by new compliance orders, penalties, and compulsory interview powers. Understanding these high‑risk areas helps taxpayers prepare, correct issues early, and reduce the likelihood of an audit. 


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