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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Trump Pushes Iran Strike Deadline Into April Amid Intensifying Regional Tensions

Onlookers watch from a window the site of a residential building damaged by a strike, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 27, 2026. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its energy infrastructure, moving the cutoff to April 6 at 8 p.m. EDT (April 7 GMT). The decision follows Tehran’s rejection of a 15‑point U.S. proposal aimed at ending the conflict, which has already spread across the Middle East and disrupted global energy markets. 

The conflict, now in its fourth week, has resulted in thousands of casualties and sent oil and fertilizer prices soaring, fueling global inflation concerns. The United States and Israel began striking Iranian targets on February 28 after nuclear negotiations failed to produce a deal. Trump stated that talks are “going very well,” though Iran denies any direct engagement with Washington. 

Trump’s extension comes after he previously paused planned strikes for five days, later expanding the pause to ten. While he claims the latest delay was requested by Iran, mediators have cast doubt on that assertion. Iran has warned it will retaliate against Gulf-region energy facilities if the U.S. proceeds with its threats. 

The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows—remains effectively blocked by Iran, further rattling markets and threatening regional stability. As diplomatic uncertainty continues, global energy prices remain volatile, and concerns grow over the humanitarian impact on millions who rely on critical infrastructure now at risk. 


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