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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Turkey Issues Renewed Airspace Alert Amid Rising Tensions Over Cyprus

 

                                            A Turkish F-16

Turkey has issued a new aviation notice warning of potential military activity in the airspace around northern Cyprus, escalating an ongoing exchange of airspace advisories between the island’s two sides. 

Turkey has released a fresh Notice to Airmen (Notam) signaling possible military operations in the airspace surrounding Ercan (Tymbou) airport in northern Cyprus. The advisory follows a series of competing Notams issued earlier in the week by both Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot authorities, reflecting heightened tensions over control and jurisdiction of the island’s airspace.

According to reports, the new Turkish Notam will remain in effect until April 12 and may become active during periods of potential military activity. Notams are essential alerts for aviation personnel, providing critical information that could affect flight safety. 

The move comes as Ankara continues to challenge Greek Cypriot-issued airspace warnings, with Turkish officials previously labeling such notices “null and void” and accusing the Greek Cypriot side of creating jurisdictional confusion. 

The latest exchange underscores ongoing geopolitical friction in the region, where airspace control remains a sensitive and contested issue.

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