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5 Things to Know Today: US Inflation Day, Canada’s Job Losses and Oil Near $106 | Oct. 14, 2026

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Wednesday, October 14, 2026 Good morning. The biggest number of the day lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, and it could shape where mortgage rates and the loonie go next. Here are the five things worth knowing before you start your day. 1 US inflation report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET September U.S. CPI is the last major inflation reading before the Fed meets Oct. 27–28. Economists expect headline inflation to climb to roughly 3.6%–3.7% from 3.4% in August, a gasoline-driven jump of about 0.6% on the month, while core inflation is seen cooling to around 0.2% month over month. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16, but September payrolls added just 29,000 jobs, and markets now see roughly a one-in-four chance of another hike in October, with December still largely priced in. What it means for you: A hotter-than-expected print can push bond yields higher, and Canadian fixed mortgage rates follow the 5-year bond. A cooler one eases the pressu...
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TSX Ends April Under Pressure as BoC and Fed Hold Rates Amid Iran Tensions

April 30, 2026 | Canadian Money Brief

TSX Closes Lower to End April as Central Banks Hold Firm, Oil Stays Elevated

Canadian equities slipped on Wednesday, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index falling 0.8% to close at 33,318 as both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates.

Rate Holds on Both Sides of the Border

The BoC kept its policy rate at 2.25%, maintaining a wait-and-see approach amid ongoing US-Iran tensions that are stoking inflationary fears. South of the border, the Fed held its benchmark rate in the 3.5%–3.75% range, citing the spike in oil prices and heightened economic uncertainty from the Iran conflict.

Banks Dragged, Energy Lifted

The rate holds weighed on Canada's big banks. BMO was down 2%, Royal Bank of Canada fell 1.3%, and TD dropped 0.8%. Energy stocks were a bright spot, however. Canadian Natural Resources gained nearly 2% while Agnico Eagle lost nearly 3%, as gold prices softened while crude surged.

Oil and OPEC+ in Focus

WTI crude traded in a $98.43–$103.80 range overnight and prices remain elevated. The energy market saw a significant shake-up after the UAE announced it would leave OPEC+, while Russia confirmed it plans to stay in the group. Markets are watching whether the UAE's departure could unlock additional production through its Hormuz-bypassing pipeline.

The Loonie Under Pressure

The Canadian dollar edged lower on broad U.S. dollar demand after the Wall Street Journal reported Trump had directed officials to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iranian ports. The loonie is taking its cues from oil sentiment and Trump's Iran campaign, with the USMCA renegotiation serving as a slow-burning drag in the background. USD/CAD was trading around 1.3693.

Tech and Tariff Watch

Shopify shed nearly 1% ahead of earnings reports from major U.S. tech companies after the market close. Apple is set to report today (April 30), and its results could ripple into Canadian tech sentiment on Thursday's open. On the tariff front, General Motors is expecting a $500 million tariff refund after the Supreme Court struck down some of U.S. President Donald Trump's most sweeping levies — a development that may ease some cross-border trade anxiety for Canadian manufacturers.

Year-to-Date Picture

Despite the recent volatility, the TSX is up over 7% this year so far, with energy and materials leading the way higher in 2026.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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