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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Ceasefire Wavers as U.S. Seizes Iranian Ship and Tehran Rejects New Talks

U.S. Navy intercepts an Iranian cargo vessel in the Arabian Sea, escalating tensions and putting the fragile ceasefire at risk.

A fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire is under renewed strain after the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian‑flagged cargo ship in the Arabian Sea, prompting Tehran to reject participation in new peace talks and warn of retaliation. 

Iranian officials accused Washington of “armed piracy” after U.S. Marines boarded and disabled the vessel following a six‑hour standoff. Tehran said the ship had been traveling from China and insisted its “defensive capabilities,” including its missile program, were not up for negotiation. 

The U.S. had hoped to restart negotiations in Pakistan before the two‑week ceasefire expires, but Iran’s foreign ministry said Washington was “not serious” about diplomacy and was insisting on “unreasonable and unrealistic positions.” Pakistani mediators also warned that the ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remains a major obstacle to progress. 

Markets reacted swiftly. Oil prices jumped more than 6% as traders feared renewed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—an artery that handles roughly one‑fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. Stock markets also wobbled on concerns that shipping traffic could again grind to a halt if tensions escalate. 

For Canadian investors, the latest flare‑up underscores the volatility tied to Middle East geopolitics. Energy prices may remain elevated, while broader market sentiment could weaken if ceasefire efforts collapse in the days ahead.



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