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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Escalation Shock: Trump’s Iran Threat Spurs Oil Spike and Global Market Sell-Off

 

                                  Asian markets broadly declined following President Donald Trump’s address

Global markets were rattled after President Donald Trump vowed to strike Iran “extremely hard,” sending oil prices sharply higher and pushing stocks into a broad retreat. Brent crude surged past $108 per barrel, while major indices across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. fell as investors reacted to renewed uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict. 

President Donald Trump’s latest warning that the U.S. will hit Iran “extremely hard” over the coming weeks has triggered a fresh wave of volatility across global markets. In a nationally televised address, Trump reiterated that U.S. military objectives in Iran were “nearing completion,” but offered no clear timeline for de-escalation—dashing earlier hopes for a swift end to the conflict. 

Oil markets reacted immediately. Brent crude jumped nearly 7% to around $108 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed above $106, reflecting deepening concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments. Analysts noted that Trump’s refusal to outline an exit strategy signaled that energy instability could persist for months. 

Stock markets across Asia and Europe tumbled as investors digested the implications of prolonged conflict. South Korea’s Kospi plunged 5.5%, while major European indices, including Germany’s DAX and the pan-European Stoxx 600, opened sharply lower. U.S. futures also slipped more than 1% across the board. Bond yields rose globally as traders fled risk assets, signaling widespread unease. 

The renewed escalation underscores the fragility of global markets amid geopolitical uncertainty. With no clear diplomatic path in sight, investors are bracing for continued turbulence in energy prices and equities as the conflict unfolds.

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