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Ottawa's Parliament Hill, where the Carney government is rolling out Canada's largest fiscal stimulus package since 1980. / Photo: Unsplash. MoneySavings.ca  ·  Economy & Policy Monday, April 13, 2026  ·  Daily Edition Canada at a crossroads: oil shock, frozen rates, and a trade deal on the clock Canada's economy is navigating a uniquely complicated moment in 2026. A Middle East conflict has sent oil prices surging past US$104 a barrel, a once-in-a-generation fiscal stimulus package is being rolled out in Ottawa, and the clock is ticking on a renegotiation of Canada's most important trade agreement. For everyday Canadians, this means uncertainty at the gas pump, a central bank with limited room to cut rates, and a federal government betting big on public spending to kick-start growth. Here is what you need to know about the forces shaping the Canadian economy right now. 1. The Bank of Canada is stuck — and oil is why The Bank of Canada has held it...
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Markets recover as Trump signals Iran talks still possible



MoneySavings.ca  ·  Daily Market Brief

Monday, April 13, 2026  ·  End-of-day edition

Markets recover as Trump signals Iran talks still possible

S&P/TSX
33,696
▲ +218 pts (+0.65%) Fri.
S&P 500
6,886
▲ +69 pts (+1.02%)
Nasdaq
23,184
▲ +1.23%
Dow Jones
48,218
▲ +302 pts (+0.63%)
WTI Crude
~$104
▲ +8.1% — elevated
CAD/USD
0.7226
Roughly flat

Overview

North American markets closed firmly in positive territory on Monday, shaking off a rocky open that saw major indices fall more than 1% in early trading. The turnaround came after President Trump stated that the U.S. had been "called by the other side," hinting that Iranian officials may still be open to negotiation despite weekend talks in Islamabad collapsing without a deal.

For Canadian investors, the TSX last closed at 33,696 on Friday, gaining 218 points as cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data and Middle East ceasefire hopes boosted sentiment. Monday's session opened with a cloudier backdrop — oil prices surged past US$104 per barrel and geopolitical risk returned — but Wall Street's resilience offered reassurance.

Key watch: The U.S. military began blocking maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports at 10:00 a.m. ET Monday, though vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian ports are unaffected. Energy stocks remain in focus for Canadian investors given Canada's significant oil sector exposure.

What's driving markets

Iran conflict & the Hormuz blockade. Weekend talks in Pakistan ended without agreement. VP Vance said Iran refused U.S. terms, though he left the door open for further negotiations. The U.S. then launched a partial blockade of Iranian shipping lanes, sending crude oil prices sharply higher — a double-edged sword for Canada, which benefits from higher oil revenues but faces imported inflation risks at the pump.

Q1 earnings season kicks off. Goldman Sachs reported its second-highest quarterly profit on record, driven by exceptional equities trading revenue. However, shares fell over 2% as fixed-income and commodities revenue missed expectations. JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo are set to report Tuesday, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America later in the week. S&P 500 companies are expected to post blended earnings growth of roughly 12.5% for Q1 — the sixth straight quarter of double-digit growth.

Tech & software rebound. Software stocks had their best single day in a year, with Oracle surging over 9% after touting AI capabilities at its Customer Edge Summit and Palantir jumping more than 13%. The iShares Software ETF gained nearly 5%, its strongest session in 12 months.

Notable movers

Gainers
ORCL+9%
PLTR+13%
Allogene+30%
TSX Energy+1.5%
Decliners
GS−2%+
CCA (TSX)−8%
Airlines−2%+
CAG−5%

On the TSX, Cogeco Communications (CCA) was the standout loser, plunging nearly 8% after reporting a 5.3% revenue decline and cutting its full-year guidance. Cogeco cited a shrinking subscriber base and competitive pricing pressure in its U.S. operations. The stock is now down about 7.6% year-to-date.

What to watch this week

The earnings calendar intensifies Tuesday with results from JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Johnson & Johnson. On Wednesday, the Producer Price Index for March is released alongside ADP employment data. Netflix, Abbott Laboratories, and PepsiCo report Thursday. Canadian investors should monitor oil price movements closely — any signal of diplomatic progress could ease energy-driven inflation pressure and give the Bank of Canada more room on rates later this year.

Canadian angle

Canada's unemployment rate held steady at 6.7% in March, slightly better than the 6.8% forecast — a small positive for domestic consumer confidence. The loonie is trading around 72.26 cents U.S., broadly flat. With WTI now above $100 per barrel, Canadian energy giants like Suncor, Canadian Natural Resources, and Cenovus are likely to benefit in the near term, though persistently high fuel costs could weigh on discretionary spending and add complexity to the Bank of Canada's rate path.

Information is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Market data sourced from public markets and may be delayed. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. © 2026 MoneySavings.ca


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