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BoC Opens the Door to Rate Hikes: What It Means for Your Mortgage

  Published September 4, 2026 The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh straight hold — but Governor Tiff Macklem didn't sound like a central banker done for the year. He told reporters the Bank is "prepared to raise interest rates, and if it takes more than one increase, we're prepared to do that," if inflation stays too high. That's a real shift in tone, and it lands right as a wave of Canadians hit their mortgage renewal date. Here's what changed, who's forecasting what, and what it actually means for your payment. Why the Bank Suddenly Sounds Hawkish Canada's annual inflation rate has climbed to around 3% — a full point above the Bank's 2% target — and the Bank is pointing squarely at energy prices. Oil has stayed elevated because of the Iran conflict and disruption near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing gas prices up and dragging headline CPI with it. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is still s...
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Ottawa Suspends Federal Fuel Excise Tax as Iran Conflict Sends Prices Soaring

The federal government has moved to blunt the latest surge in fuel costs, announcing a temporary suspension of Canada’s federal fuel excise tax as the Iran war pushes global oil benchmarks to their highest levels since 2022. Finance Minister Mark Carney said the measure is designed to “provide immediate relief to Canadians” as geopolitical tensions ripple through global supply chains.

The excise tax—10 cents per litre on gasoline and 4 cents on diesel—has been lifted nationwide for an initial 90‑day period. Ottawa estimates the suspension will save the average driver $6–$10 per fill‑up, with larger savings for rural and northern households who rely heavily on long‑distance travel and diesel‑powered transport.

The move comes as crude prices spike on fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor for global oil flows. Canadian refiners and retailers have already passed higher wholesale costs through to consumers, with pump prices rising 12–18 cents per litre in major cities over the past week.

Economists warn the tax suspension won’t fully offset global price pressures, but it may help prevent another broad inflation flare‑up—especially in transportation, groceries, and home‑heating fuels. Carney said the government is prepared to extend the measure if market volatility persists.

For households already stretched by high borrowing costs and elevated food prices, even modest relief at the pump offers welcome breathing room.

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