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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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U.S. Signals Rapid Exit From Iran Conflict as Trump Escalates NATO Threats

Donald Trump scaled up threats to pull the United States out of the NATO defence alliance if European states did not help stop Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump has indicated that the United States may withdraw from the Iran conflict within weeks, even without a negotiated agreement, while simultaneously amplifying threats to pull the country out of NATO. 

Trump told reporters that U.S. involvement in the Iran war could end “within two weeks, maybe three,” stressing that Iran “doesn’t have to make a deal” for the U.S. to depart. His comments come amid ongoing missile and drone exchanges across the region, including strikes in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Tehran. 

At the same time, Trump criticized NATO allies for what he described as a lack of support in the conflict, calling the alliance a “paper tiger” and suggesting that withdrawing U.S. membership is now “beyond reconsideration.”

The remarks highlight Washington’s shifting and sometimes contradictory messaging as the conflict continues to disrupt global energy markets. The International Energy Agency warns that oil supply losses could double this month due to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

The White House says Trump will address the nation with an update on Iran, signaling that major policy announcements may be imminent. 


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