Weekly Market Snapshot: Geopolitical Fog Meets Earnings Season as Markets Grind Higher

Week ending April 24, 2026 | Canadian Money Brief – moneysavings.ca

Markets this week found themselves caught between two powerful forces: a roaring U.S. earnings season pushing stocks to fresh records, and a simmering Middle East conflict keeping oil elevated and investor nerves frayed. For Canadians, that makes for a complicated but important picture heading into the last week of April.

TSX Composite: Stuck in the Mud

The S&P/TSX Composite spent the week trading in a tight band near the 34,000 mark, unable to mount a meaningful rally. Tuesday delivered a sharp blow — the index plunged over 550 points to close at 33,808 as U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed after U.S. Vice President JD Vance abruptly cancelled his Pakistan trip, where he was set to lead negotiations. Wednesday brought a partial recovery, with the TSX adding roughly 0.4% to close at 33,955, helped by gains in energy and mining stocks following President Trump's announcement of an indefinite ceasefire extension. By Thursday, that optimism faded again as Iran tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, capturing two tankers and demanding the U.S. lift its naval blockade. The index closed the week near 33,900.

The week's key divide: energy stocks up, banks and gold miners down. Canadian Natural Resources gained roughly 1%, while Suncor added over 1% as oil prices climbed. On the flip side, Royal Bank slipped 0.6% and TD Bank dropped 0.8% on fears that elevated oil could reignite inflation and push yields — and borrowing costs — higher.

S&P 500: Record Territory Despite the Noise

South of the border, the story was decidedly more bullish. The S&P 500 closed Friday at roughly 7,165, up nearly 0.8% on the day, capping a week of new all-time highs. The index has been above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since April 8th. With 28% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q1 2026 results, the earnings season is tracking strong — this marks the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year earnings growth. Revenue growth is on pace to hit 10.3% for Q1, which would be the highest rate since Q3 2022. The forward 12-month P/E ratio sits at 20.9, above the 5-year average of 19.9, suggesting the market is pricing in continued growth but leaving limited margin for error.

Oil: The Elephant in the Room

Crude oil is the story of the week — and arguably the story of 2026. WTI crude hovered in the $89–96 U.S. range, while Brent crude climbed back above $100 and briefly touched $105 as Iran-U.S. peace talks stalled and shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz came under renewed threat. Iran's seizure of tankers attempting to exit the Persian Gulf has injected a significant geopolitical risk premium into global energy prices. For Canadians, this is a double-edged sword: energy stocks and Alberta's producers benefit, but higher oil feeds inflation fears that may delay Bank of Canada rate cuts. American Airlines already cut its 2026 earnings outlook this week, citing rising fuel costs — a warning sign for corporate margins broadly.

The Canadian Dollar: Caught Between Oil and the USD

The loonie is trading around 73.2 cents U.S. (approximately USD/CAD 1.37), essentially flat for the week. While Canada's status as a major oil exporter would normally see the CAD strengthen alongside crude prices, safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar during geopolitical uncertainty has been an offsetting force. The Bank of Canada is now expected to hold — or potentially raise — rates due to oil-driven inflation risk, which limits the CAD's upside. For Canadians travelling or shopping in U.S. dollars, the loonie remains under pressure. Watch the 1.37–1.40 USD/CAD band as the battleground for the weeks ahead.

Winners & Losers of the Week

Winners 

Intel (INTC) surged over 23% — its best single day since the dot-com era — after delivering a strong Q1 earnings beat. The semiconductor giant's results lifted the entire chip sector.

Qualcomm (QCOM) added 10.3% on the back of Intel's rally and its own positive signals out of Auto China 2026.

United Rentals (URI) jumped roughly 24% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $9.71, well above the $8.95 consensus, and raising its full-year revenue outlook.

Waste Connections (WCN) surged over 6% following a better-than-expected Q1 earnings report — one of the TSX's brighter spots this week.

Canadian energy producers broadly benefited from surging oil prices, with Canadian Natural Resources and Suncor both adding over 1%.

Losers 

HCA Healthcare (HCA) fell 8.2% after warning that 2026 profits would land at the low end of guidance due to storm-related revenue losses.

Meta Platforms (META) dropped after CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced plans to cut 10% of its workforce (roughly 8,000 jobs) effective May 20, alongside scrapping 6,000 planned hires.

Tesla (TSLA) slid 2–3% as investors processed its Q1 report and a revised capex outlook exceeding $25 billion for 2026.

IBM and ServiceNow both sold off sharply after underwhelming earnings triggered a broader rout in enterprise software stocks on Thursday.

Canadian bank stocks (RBC, TD) were muted-to-negative as rising oil reignited stagflation worries and put pressure on bond yields.

Key Events to Watch Next Week (April 28 – May 2)

Fed Rate Decision is the marquee event. The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark rate steady in the 3.50–3.75% range, but markets will hang on every word of Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for signals on when — or if — cuts might come given persistent oil-driven inflation.

180 S&P 500 companies report Q1 earnings, including 11 Dow 30 components. Tech heavyweights and mega-caps will dominate the tape.

Fairfax Financial reports Q1 2026 results — a key read for Canadian investors on the insurance and investment front.

U.S. PCE Inflation Data (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) lands and could reset rate-cut expectations in either direction.

CUSMA Trade Talks: Canada's chief negotiator to the U.S. signalled this week that a July resolution of all North American trade pact issues is unlikely. Any fresh headlines could move the loonie.

Strait of Hormuz developments will continue to set the tone for oil — and by extension, the TSX's energy-heavy index.

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This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

— Canadian Money Brief | moneysavings.ca