TSX Rebounds as Oil Climbs and Canada’s Jobs Data Lands
Friday, May 8, 2026
· Canadian Money Brief · moneysavings.ca
TSX Opens Higher After Thursday Dip
Canadian stocks are staging a
recovery Friday morning, with the S&P/TSX Composite climbing back
after a rough Thursday. The index shed 0.4% to close at 33,857 as
investors locked in recent gains ahead of U.S. and Canadian jobs data due
Friday — with energy shares dragging it lower as oil pulled back. As of Friday
morning, the TSX had recovered to around 33,932, up roughly 1.1%,
following positive cues from Wall Street futures.
Oil Back in Focus: Geopolitics Drive WTI Toward $96
WTI crude futures climbed
toward $96 per barrel on Friday, recouping some of the week’s losses as
fresh clashes between the U.S. and Iran threatened to derail diplomatic efforts
to end the conflict. U.S. Central Command confirmed American forces intercepted
Iranian attacks and carried out defensive strikes, while guided missile
destroyers passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the conflict began, WTI
has traded in an unusually wide range — swinging between US$80 and near US$120
within weeks. Higher energy prices are a double-edged sword for Canada: a boost
to oil patch earnings, but a headache for consumers already squeezed at the
pump.
Thursday’s pullback saw Canadian
Natural Resources fall 2.1% and Suncor lose 1.0%, while Shopify
provided partial offset with a 5.8% rebound after steep losses earlier in
the week.
Canadian Dollar Holds Steady Near 73 Cents US
The loonie is holding steady in
a tight range. USD/CAD is currently trading near 1.36–1.37, reflecting a
balanced but fragile equilibrium between resilient U.S. economic performance
and modest support for the Canadian dollar from commodities. A gradual move
lower is expected later in 2026, but upside risks remain if Fed cuts are
delayed or geopolitical tensions escalate.
All Eyes on April’s Jobs Report
Statistics Canada released its
Labour Force Survey for April this morning, with the report arriving as
Canadian businesses contend with high oil prices from the Middle East conflict
and following the Bank of Canada’s decision last week to hold its policy
interest rate at 2.25%. A Reuters poll suggested economists expected the
economy to add roughly 15,000 jobs in April. The central bank has
signalled it is closely monitoring both the geopolitical situation and the
ongoing ripple effects of U.S. tariff policy before making any further rate
moves.
The Broader Picture
The broader picture remains one
of cautious optimism. Higher oil prices are putting upward pressure on
near-term inflation, but overall economic conditions remain broadly stable,
with the labour market continuing to hold up. Markets will be parsing the jobs
data closely through the day for clues on whether the Bank of Canada has room
to ease further — or whether sticky inflation from elevated energy costs keeps
it on the sidelines into summer.
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