Bank of Canada holds rate at 2.25% - next decision June 10

From the Bank of Canada's steady hand to a surge in housing starts and Ottawa's new financial crime-fighting agency — here are the five money stories every Canadian should have on their radar this morning.

1

Bank of Canada

Rate Holds at 2.25% — Next Decision June 10

The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on April 29 and has signalled it intends to stay put for now. Governing Council is keeping a close eye on Middle East conflict spillover into energy prices, ongoing U.S. tariff uncertainty, and whether inflation — currently hovering just above the 2% target — becomes entrenched. Bond markets are currently pricing in roughly an 18% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by the July 15 announcement, making a move at the June 10 meeting unlikely.

💡 What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders can exhale — no surprise hikes on the horizon. But don't expect big rate relief either; the "lower-for-longer" window appears to be closing.

2

Mortgages

One Million Renewals in 2026 — Brace for Payment Shock

Over one million Canadian households are expected to renew their mortgages this year, many of them locking in at pandemic-era rates below 2%. Experts estimate that fixed-rate borrowers renewing in 2026 could face average monthly payment increases of around 20%, with approximately 33% of all Canadian mortgage holders set to see higher payments by year-end. Roughly 75% of those facing an increase are on five-year fixed terms that are now rolling over into today's higher-rate environment.

💡 What it means for you: If your renewal is coming up, start shopping brokers and comparing rates now — not the week before. Even a 0.1% difference on a $500,000 mortgage saves hundreds of dollars a year.

3

Housing Market

Housing Starts Jump to 279K in April — Supply Signals Positive

April housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 279,000 units, sharply higher than the 214,000 recorded in March — a significant beat that suggests Canada's construction pipeline is loosening up. Home sales nationally are also on an upward trajectory since March 2025, with CREA forecasting a 7.7% year-over-year increase in 2026 sales to around 509,000 units. Home affordability has improved modestly due to lower interest rates and cooling prices in some markets, though regional conditions remain uneven.

💡 What it means for you: More supply is good news for buyers, especially first-timers. If you're on the fence, subdued competition in many markets right now may offer a rare window before demand picks up later in the year.

4

Consumer Protection

Canada Gets Its First Dedicated Financial Crimes Agency

The federal government's Spring Economic Update includes a proposal to create Canada's first-ever Financial Crimes Agency — a dedicated federal law enforcement body focused on tackling sophisticated fraud, money laundering, and illicit financial networks. The move follows a $1.7 billion commitment in Budget 2025 to strengthen the RCMP's response to transnational organized crime and financial crimes. Since 2019, Ottawa has invested close to $379 million in combatting financial crimes, and this new agency represents the next major escalation.

💡 What it means for you: Fraud and money laundering aren't abstract — they drive up costs for everyone. A dedicated agency signals a serious shift in how Canada protects consumers and the integrity of its financial system.

5

Business & Trade

$1.5B Relief Package for Tariff-Hit Industries

The federal government has announced $1.5 billion to support industries hammered by U.S. tariffs on products containing steel, aluminum, and copper. This includes a new $1 billion Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) program designed to strengthen economic resilience for manufacturers and exporters in these sectors. An additional $500 million was allocated through the Regional Tariff Response Initiative. Separately, the Canada Growth Fund committed up to $145 million to expand Canada's largest operating lithium mine in Quebec — part of a broader $5 billion-plus portfolio of strategic investments.

💡 What it means for you: These programs protect jobs in key industries and help stabilize the supply chains that affect everyday prices. If you own a small business in manufacturing or exports, the BDC program is worth exploring immediately.