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The Fed Decides Wednesday — Here's What It Means for Your Mortgage, the Loonie, and Your RRSP

  Monday, July 27, 2026 The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on July 29. For most Canadians it will feel like background noise. It isn't — here's the plain-language version of why it touches your mortgage, your cross-border spending, and whatever's sitting in your RRSP. The short version: Markets are pricing roughly a two-in-three chance the Fed holds its rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. That's not the story. The story is that this is one of the least certain "sure thing" holds in years — and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET could matter more than the decision itself. Why this meeting is different The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% through every meeting so far in 2026. On paper, Wednesday should be more of the same. Under the hood, it's messier. Persistent inflation, running well above the Fed's 2% target for a fifth straight year, has kept a rate hike on the table. The oil-...
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Canadian Money Brief: 5 Things to Know Today — May 27, 2026


 

From a blockbuster bank earnings day to a historic energy deal with Europe, here are the five stories driving Canadian markets and your money this Wednesday morning.

1. Big Bank Earnings Are In — All Eyes on RBC, BMO & Scotiabank

It's the biggest day on the Canadian earnings calendar this week. Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal, Scotiabank, and National Bank of Canada are all reporting their Q2 fiscal 2026 results today. TD Bank follows tomorrow. Heading into the reports, markets have been cautious — the TSX's banking sector was largely flat on Tuesday as investors held off placing big bets ahead of the numbers. All six major banks beat analyst expectations in Q1, so the bar is set high. Watch for any commentary on loan loss provisions and whether executives flag concern about the economic impact of ongoing U.S. tariffs. These results will set the tone for the TSX's largest sector for weeks to come.

2. Canada Signs Historic LNG Deal With Germany

In a landmark announcement, Canada is signing a major liquefied natural gas supply agreement with Germany's state-backed energy company SEFE, sourced from the planned Ksi Lisims LNG facility in northwestern British Columbia. The deal — the first of its kind between Canada and Europe — covers one million metric tonnes of LNG per year and is being formally announced in Vancouver today by Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson. The $10-billion floating export facility, developed in partnership with the Nisga'a Nation, Rockies LNG, and Houston-based Western LNG, already has supply agreements with Shell and TotalEnergies in place. B.C. Premier David Eby called the deal a key step toward the project's final investment decision. For Canadian energy investors, it's a significant vote of confidence in domestic LNG exports.

3. TSX Pulls Back From Record Highs on Middle East Tensions

After touching an all-time high earlier this week, the S&P/TSX Composite Index slid back to the 34,000 level on Tuesday as renewed U.S. military strikes in Iran rattled global markets. The attacks stoked fresh uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments — reigniting fears of prolonged inflation and a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment. Mining stocks bore the brunt of the pullback, with gold prices dipping and heavyweights like Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold, and Wheaton Precious Metals all finishing in the red. Wednesday's trading will hinge largely on the bank earnings results and any further geopolitical developments out of the Middle East.

4. CUSMA Trade Talks Formally Underway — July 1 Deadline Looms

The first round of formal negotiations over the renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) is now officially underway, with markets watching closely. The July 1, 2026 deadline is fast approaching, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has publicly signalled that Washington is "dissatisfied" with key provisions of the current deal. Prime Minister Mark Carney's government has assembled a business and labour advisory council to guide Ottawa's position. For Canadians, the stakes are high: nearly all of Canada's exports to the U.S. are CUSMA-compliant, and analysts warn that a failure to reach an extension could trigger serious trade disruption and weigh heavily on the loonie and economic growth heading into the second half of 2026.

5. Oil Holds Above $94 — Energy Stocks to Watch

Crude oil prices remain elevated, holding above US$94 per barrel, as the ongoing Strait of Hormuz uncertainty keeps a floor under energy markets. While that's a tailwind for Canadian oil producers, stocks in the sector have been trading with mixed signals — benefiting from higher prices on one hand, but facing headwinds from broader market risk-off sentiment on the other. The Canadian dollar is hovering near 72.4 cents U.S., little changed from Tuesday, as traders balance oil's strength against lingering CUSMA uncertainty. Meanwhile, Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) continues to be a closely watched name after reporting record production of roughly 1.64 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q1, along with a raised quarterly dividend.

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