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BoC Opens the Door to Rate Hikes: What It Means for Your Mortgage

  Published September 4, 2026 The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh straight hold — but Governor Tiff Macklem didn't sound like a central banker done for the year. He told reporters the Bank is "prepared to raise interest rates, and if it takes more than one increase, we're prepared to do that," if inflation stays too high. That's a real shift in tone, and it lands right as a wave of Canadians hit their mortgage renewal date. Here's what changed, who's forecasting what, and what it actually means for your payment. Why the Bank Suddenly Sounds Hawkish Canada's annual inflation rate has climbed to around 3% — a full point above the Bank's 2% target — and the Bank is pointing squarely at energy prices. Oil has stayed elevated because of the Iran conflict and disruption near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing gas prices up and dragging headline CPI with it. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is still s...
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TSX Extends Losses Tuesday as Oil Retreats and Geopolitical Fog Lingers




Canadian Money Brief  |  May 5, 2026 

Canadian equities are on track for a second consecutive down session, with the S&P/TSX Composite falling 191.7 points, or 0.6%, by midday Tuesday, as investors continued to assess renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. markets also weakened, with the Dow falling 528 points, the S&P 500 dropping 45 points, and the Nasdaq declining 155.8 points.

Oil pulls back, but stays elevated

After Monday's dramatic spike, crude prices gave back some ground Tuesday. WTI crude fell to around $104 per barrel on May 5, down nearly 2% from the previous session, though it remains more than 76% higher than a year ago. The pullback came even as the underlying geopolitical situation remains unresolved. Iran's navy said it turned away enemy warships attempting to traverse the Strait of Hormuz following what it described as a swift warning, while U.S. Central Command maintained that no American ships had been struck.

Analysts remain cautious about how long the disruption could last. The oil market “remains the fulcrum, with hundreds of tankers, bulk carriers, and cargo ships still stranded across the Gulf, idling as storage constraints force producers to shut production simply because there is nowhere left to store it,” according to one market strategist.

Context from Monday’s close

The losses today follow a rough Monday session. The S&P/TSX Composite fell 252.31 points to 33,638.87 on Monday, with markets pulled between constructive earnings and a sharp repricing of inflation and interest rate expectations driven by higher oil. The Canadian dollar sank to 73.45 cents US, while gold fell sharply to $4,526.90 US per ounce. On the TSX, all but two of the 12 subgroups closed lower, with consumer discretionary down 2%, materials retreating 1.7%, and gold losing 1.4% — while energy gained 1.4% and information technology edged up 0.7%.

Ottawa responds with $1B business relief program

On the policy front, the federal government announced a new $1 billion loan program for steel, aluminum, and copper businesses impacted by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, a signal Ottawa is watching the economic spillover from both the Iran-driven energy shock and ongoing US trade pressure.

The bigger picture

The TSX Composite, heavily weighted toward energy, financials, and commodities, is showing resilience amid rising oil prices, inflationary pressures, and escalating geopolitical tensions — but the Canadian dollar remains sensitive to oil price volatility, creating additional risks for investors. With Friday’s US jobs report on the horizon and the Strait of Hormuz standoff far from resolved, Canadian markets are likely to remain headline-driven for the rest of the week.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment dec
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