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TSX Edges Higher as Miners Rally, But Iran Tensions and Stagflation Fears Keep Markets on Edge
Publication: moneysavings.ca / Canadian Money Brief Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026
Market Snapshot
Index / Asset | Value | Change |
S&P/TSX (Mon close) | 34,139 | +0.2% |
Gold (spot) | ~$4,677 USD/oz | -0.36% |
Crude Oil (WTI) | ~$97.88 USD/bbl | +2.58% |
CAD/USD | 0.7318 | +0.04% |
Canadian markets wrapped up Monday in the green, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index adding 0.2% to close at 34,139 — buoyed by a standout session for the mining sector but tempered by pressure on financials and a sharp selloff in Shopify.
Mining leads the way
Barrick Mining was the headline act of the day, surging 9.1% after delivering first-quarter profit results that beat analyst estimates. Higher gold prices helped the company more than offset a dip in production volumes. Fellow miners followed suit: Agnico Eagle climbed 1.9% and Wheaton Precious Metals gained 3.6%, reflecting continued investor appetite for Canadian gold plays at a time when bullion remains historically elevated — hovering near US$4,677 per ounce.
Oil up, but inflation fears linger
Energy producers also had a solid session as crude oil prices rose on fresh supply concerns. U.S. President Donald Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest response to a proposed peace agreement over the weekend, reigniting fears of prolonged disruption in the Middle East and near the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude traded near US$97.88 per barrel. Canadian Natural Resources added 1.4% and Suncor Energy gained 1.7% in step with the move. The flip side: elevated energy prices are stoking stagflation concerns — persistent inflation combined with sluggish growth — which weighed on the financial sector. Royal Bank of Canada slid 0.6% and Brookfield Asset Management lost 1.7%.
Shopify takes a hit
The session's biggest casualty was Shopify, which dropped 6.9%. The tech-forward e-commerce giant has faced renewed headwinds as sticky inflation and higher-for-longer rate expectations dampen the growth stock environment.
What to watch today
Tuesday's key catalyst is the U.S. April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due out this morning. With the Fed having held rates steady at its last meeting — and four policymakers dissenting — the CPI print will be closely watched for signals on the interest rate path. Markets currently price virtually no chance of a June cut. A hotter-than-expected number could push the Canadian dollar lower and add further pressure to rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and banking. Investors will also keep an eye on developments in U.S.-Canada trade relations ahead of the USMCA review scheduled for July 1, 2026.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
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