Markets Mixed as TSX Dips and Nvidia Earnings Loom
📊 At a Glance — Previous Close & Early Indicators (May 19)
Canadian markets closed Tuesday in modest negative territory, with the S&P/TSX Composite edging down 92 points to 33,741 — weighed down by a retreat in gold prices and climbing bond yields, even as softer inflation data gave investors a brief moment of optimism.
Canada's core inflation figures came in below expectations, falling to their lowest level in five years. While that should ordinarily calm nerves about future Bank of Canada rate hikes, traders largely looked past the headline, with yields on Canada's 10-year government bond continuing to climb. The disconnect between better inflation data and rising yields reflects a broader global tension: elevated oil prices and the ongoing Iran-U.S. standoff are keeping risk sentiment cautious.
Mining stocks bore the brunt of Tuesday's pullback. A stronger U.S. dollar pushed gold prices lower, dragging down the major precious metals names. Agnico Eagle fell roughly 2%, Wheaton Precious Metals shed more than 2.5%, and Barrick Gold lost about 1.5%. The energy sector told the opposite story — Canadian Natural Resources gained close to 2% and Cenovus Energy rose 3%, lifted by elevated crude prices.
In tech, Celestica was the notable laggard, plunging over 5.5% on investor anxiety around AI supply chain momentum. Shopify, however, bucked the trend and gained more than 1%. Engineering giants Stantec and WSP were also under pressure after reports flagged that AI-driven disruption concerns are beginning to weigh on their share prices, making them among the session's notable TSX underperformers.
All eyes today are on Nvidia. The chipmaker — the world's de facto barometer for AI investment sentiment — reports its fiscal first-quarter earnings after the close of U.S. markets this evening. With Nvidia trading around $222–230 USD and carrying a market cap near $5.4 trillion (USD), the results are expected to move markets on both sides of the border. A strong beat could lift TSX tech names; a miss or cautious guidance could compound Tuesday's softness. The stock is up roughly 19% year-to-date heading into the print.
On the geopolitical front, President Trump reiterated a stark warning to Iran, saying the "clock is ticking" on a peace deal. Continued uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices elevated, which helps Canadian energy producers but adds to global inflation concerns and pressures central banks — including the Bank of Canada — to hold rates higher for longer.
The Canadian dollar slipped slightly to 72.69 cents U.S., reflecting both the slightly risk-off tone and relative strength in the greenback. The loonie has been rangebound in the low-to-mid 72-cent zone as markets price in the possibility that the Bank of Canada's next move may be delayed.
What to watch today: Nvidia earnings after the bell are the dominant catalyst for North American markets. Locally, watch energy names if crude oil sustains above $100, and monitor whether gold can stabilize after this week's pressure. Any escalation or de-escalation in the Iran situation could move oil sharply in either direction — and with it, a big chunk of the TSX.
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