Oil Swings, Records Fall, and Bank Earnings Roll In: Markets Update — May 28, 2026
Thursday is shaping up to be an eventful one for markets. A sharp rebound in oil prices — triggered by fresh U.S. military strikes in Iran overnight — is rattling futures this morning, even as Wall Street closed at fresh records on Wednesday. Here in Canada, the TSX pulled back sharply, weighed down by energy-sector volatility and mixed signals from the big banks. Traders are also keeping a close eye on two major U.S. data releases due today: April PCE inflation and the Q1 GDP second estimate.
Canada
The TSX had a rough Wednesday. The S&P/TSX Composite shed 241.82 points — roughly 0.70% — to close at 34,412.05, as energy stocks were dragged lower by falling crude prices. The loonie dipped slightly as well, with the Canadian dollar trading at 72.29 cents U.S., compared with 72.40 cents the day before.
It's a big week for Canadian bank earnings, and results so far have been mixed but largely solid. Bank of Nova Scotia and BMO Financial Group both reported stronger second-quarter profits and raised their dividends on Wednesday, with their shares gaining 0.51% and 0.85% respectively. National Bank of Canada, despite posting a quarterly profit of $1.23 billion — up from $896 million a year ago — and hiking its dividend, saw its shares drop about 4%, as markets apparently expected even more.
This morning, CIBC announced its Q2 2026 results, reporting net income of $2.465 billion — a 23% jump year over year — with adjusted diluted EPS coming in at $2.54, up 24% from a year ago. Revenue hit $8.0 billion for the quarter. TD Bank is scheduled to report later today.
On the energy front, British Columbia Premier David Eby confirmed a deal for Canada to supply liquefied natural gas to Germany, saying the agreement makes it more likely the Ksi Lisims LNG project on B.C.'s West Coast will move forward — a potentially significant development for Canada's energy export future.
Futures tracking the TSX are pointing lower in early Thursday trading, as the overnight rebound in oil prices adds fresh uncertainty heading into today's session.
United States
U.S. markets closed at record highs on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 182.60 points (+0.36%) to 50,644.28 — a fresh all-time closing high — while the S&P 500 edged up to 7,520.36 and the Nasdaq Composite gained slightly to 26,674.73. The rally was helped by sliding oil prices and Goldman Sachs raising its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, citing a solid earnings outlook.
Not all was rosy: JPMorgan shares fell about 2% after CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank could spend up to $20 billion on an acquisition "in the next couple of years." Chip stocks were mixed after their recent run-up, with some analysts cautioning that while semiconductor shares have more than tripled this year, historical boom-bust cycles are worth watching.
After the close, Snowflake surged over 35% in extended trading after announcing a $6 billion deal with Amazon Web Services — a major signal for the AI cloud infrastructure build-out. Salesforce also beat earnings estimates but offered cautious guidance given disruption concerns from AI.
Thursday morning futures are softer: S&P 500 futures are down roughly 0.2–0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures off about 0.3–0.8%, as oil's overnight rebound weighs on sentiment. All eyes are on today's April PCE inflation report — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — and the Q1 GDP second estimate. Also on the earnings calendar today: Dell, Costco, Dollar Tree, Best Buy, AutoDesk, MongoDB, and Gap.
Oil & Commodities
Oil is having a volatile week, and Thursday is no exception. On Wednesday, crude prices dropped sharply — WTI fell more than $5 to settle at $88.68 per barrel and Brent crude dropped about 4.6% to $92.25 — after Iranian state media reported that the country is committed to restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within one month. The White House quickly dismissed those reports as a "complete fabrication," and overnight, new U.S. military strikes in Iran sent crude rebounding: WTI climbed back above $90 and Brent futures rose nearly 2% to around $96 per barrel in early Thursday trading.
The Hormuz situation continues to be the key swing factor for energy markets. Analysts say any credible resolution could send prices lower, while escalation risks remain very real.
Gold pulled back on Wednesday, with the August contract down $68.40 to $4,466.60 per ounce, as the brief easing of Middle East tensions and rising U.S. equity sentiment dampened safe-haven demand.
Global Markets
European markets closed lower on Wednesday. The FTSE 100 fell 1.04% to 10,395.39, the DAX slipped 0.45% to 25,063.93, and the CAC 40 dipped 0.38% to 8,176.66. The broader Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.35%. Ongoing concern about the Middle East and stubbornly elevated inflation in the eurozone kept buying enthusiasm subdued, with the European Commission projecting GDP growth of just 0.9% for 2026 and inflation running at 3%.
In Asia, markets were broadly negative overnight. Japan's Nikkei 225 was marginally lower, while the Hang Seng fell 1.27% to 25,006.16. South Korea's Kospi declined 0.36%, and Australia's ASX 200 lost 0.79%. China's Shanghai Composite edged up slightly, gaining 0.12%. The region's recent pullbacks reflect the uncertainty over Middle East energy supply and ongoing caution around U.S. interest rate expectations.
On a longer view, global markets have had a strong 2026 — Japan's Nikkei leads the world's major indexes with a year-to-date gain of about 29%, followed by the U.S. S&P 500 (+9.8%) and the Canadian TSX (+9.3%). Germany's DAX is roughly flat for the year.
Key Numbers at a Glance (May 27 close)
| Market / Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| TSX Composite | 34,412.05 | ▼ 241.82 |
| Dow Jones | 50,644.28 | ▲ 182.60 |
| S&P 500 | 7,520.36 | ▲ 1.24 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,674.73 | ▲ 18.55 |
| FTSE 100 | 10,395.39 | ▼ 1.04% |
| DAX | 25,063.93 | ▼ 0.45% |
| Hang Seng | 25,006.16 | ▼ 1.27% |
| WTI Crude Oil | US$88.68/bbl | ▼ $5.21 |
| Brent Crude | US$92.25/bbl | ▼ 4.6% |
| Gold (Aug. futures) | US$4,466.60/oz | ▼ $68.40 |
| CAD/USD | 0.7229 | ▼ slight |
📌 What to Watch Today
- April PCE Inflation (U.S.) — The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Markets are hoping for a softening to give the Fed some breathing room.
- Q1 GDP Second Estimate (U.S.) — Revised read on first-quarter economic growth.
- TD Bank Q2 Earnings — The last of the major Canadian banks to report this week.
- Strait of Hormuz — Any developments on U.S.-Iran negotiations will move oil prices and broader markets quickly.
- Earnings — Dell, Costco, Dollar Tree, Best Buy, MongoDB, AutoDesk, Gap all report after the U.S. close.
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