TSX Eyes Gains as Trump-Xi Summit Looms and Oil Steadies Near $95

Canadian Money Brief · Monday, May 11, 2026

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Canadian equities are set for a cautious but constructive open this Monday as investors balance a packed macro calendar against an energy sector still reeling from one of its most volatile weeks in recent memory.

TSX at a Glance

The S&P/TSX Composite closed Friday at 34,077.76, up 221 points (+0.65%) to cap a week dominated by whipsaw oil moves and a fragile Middle East ceasefire. The energy sector has led TSX gains over the past seven days — up roughly 5% — even as WTI crude fell about 7% on the week, settling near $95.42 per barrel. That apparent contradiction reflects Canadian producers' longer-term optimism on supply tightness rather than any single day's price swing. For the year, the TSX is up approximately 35%, outpacing most major global benchmarks.

The Big Story: Trump Heads to Beijing

All eyes this week will be on Washington and Beijing. President Donald Trump is scheduled to arrive in China on Wednesday, with formal talks with President Xi Jinping set for Thursday and Friday (May 14–15). This marks Trump's first visit to China in eight years, and the agenda is sweeping: trade tariffs, rare-earth export controls, Taiwan, artificial intelligence governance, nuclear weapons, and — critically for Canadian commodity markets — the Iran war and the future of the Strait of Hormuz.

For Canadian investors, the summit matters for several reasons. A breakthrough on rare-earth restrictions would ease pressure on North American manufacturing and tech supply chains. Meanwhile, any signal that the Hormuz closure — in effect since late February and disrupting roughly 14 million barrels per day of global supply — could end would send energy stocks sharply lower even as it restores broader global growth confidence.

Oil: Volatile, But Still Elevated

Crude remains the dominant variable for TSX performance. WTI posted a 7% weekly loss last week after President Trump stated the US-Iran ceasefire "certainly holds," despite ongoing skirmishes in the Persian Gulf. Yet prices remain historically high, with WTI trading near $95 and the 52-week range stretching from $55 to $117.

Adding complexity to the picture: the UAE announced it is leaving OPEC+, while Russia confirmed it intends to stay in the cartel. Analysts at Investing.com flagged the UAE's exit as a possible harbinger of an "anti-OPEC club" forming among Gulf producers, which could fracture the cartel's output discipline just as Iranian supply disruptions prop up global prices from the other side.

Canadian Natural Resources and other large-cap producers have been pushing for new pipeline capacity amid rising domestic output — a longer-term bullish signal for the sector that investors are weighing against near-term price uncertainty.

The Loonie and the Rate Outlook

The Canadian dollar is under modest pressure, trading at approximately $0.7312 USD, weighed down by softer-than-expected domestic data and market bets on further Bank of Canada rate cuts. Traders are increasingly pricing in a dovish BoC path relative to the Fed, a spread that continues to act as a headwind for CAD. Watch for any shift in tone from BoC officials this week that could move the currency.

Broader Macro Context

Global markets are also tracking China's April export data, which came in surprisingly strong at +14.1% year-over-year despite ongoing geopolitical disruptions and US tariff pressure. Strong Chinese export momentum is typically a positive for Canadian resource exporters and could lend support to base metals and energy names this week.

South of the border, the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record of 7,259.22 and the Nasdaq at 25,326.13 as of last Tuesday's session, boosted by solid earnings and a temporary oil price pullback. Whether those records hold will depend heavily on how Trump-Xi summit headlines land Thursday and Friday.

What to Watch This Week

• Trump-Xi summit, Thursday–Friday in Beijing: any deal on tariffs, rare earths, or Hormuz reopening could move Canadian markets materially
• WTI crude price action: watch the $93–$98 range for directional cues on energy stocks
• Bank of Canada communications: any dovish signal could push the loonie lower
• Iran ceasefire durability: fresh Strait of Hormuz incidents remain the single biggest upside risk for oil — and the TSX energy sector

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This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.