Your weekly
brief on what moved Canadian markets — and what to watch next.
TSX at a Glance
The S&P/TSX Composite Index
ended Friday down 0.2% at 33,891,
underperforming its U.S. counterparts as pressure mounted from energy producers
and banks amid a busy earnings season.
Energy Sector Under Pressure
Oil prices remained a key
headwind for the week. WTI crude stayed volatile as diplomatic efforts between
Iran and the U.S. showed limited progress, keeping inflation risks and supply
disruptions front of mind for investors.
On the equity side, Canadian
Natural Resources and Suncor both dropped around 1.5%, while Imperial Oil sank
4% following its earnings release. TC Energy also fell over 1% after its
quarterly report.
Banks Feel the Pinch
Canada's big banks didn't
escape the week unscathed. Heavyweight financial names TD and RBC closed in the
red, weighed down by pessimistic spending demand signals highlighted in the
domestic GDP report released Thursday.
Earnings Misses in Focus
Beyond the banks and energy
names, several corporate reports disappointed:
• Fairfax
Financial slumped 7.5% after missing its earnings estimate.
• Magna
International fell 5% on weaker-than-expected orders.
•
Air Canada dropped after abandoning its
full-year guidance for 2026 — a notable signal of continued uncertainty in the
travel sector.
Economy: Steady but
Cautious
On the macroeconomic front, the
picture was mixed. Real GDP grew 0.2% in February, with goods-producing
industries leading for a second consecutive month. Manufacturing was the
standout, rising 1.8% — its biggest monthly gain since January 2023.
However, the labour market
showed signs of cooling. The number of employees receiving pay and benefits
fell by 60,200 (-0.3%) in February, with retail trade payrolls also declining.
Looking ahead, RBC Economics
expects approximately 25,000 jobs were added in April, which could nudge
the unemployment rate down to 6.6% from 6.7% — continuing its gradual
retreat from the 7.1% peak seen in late 2025.
Bond Market & the BoC
Canadian bond yields edged
higher this week, with Middle East tensions keeping inflation risks elevated.
Since the onset of the regional conflict, the 10-year bond yield is up roughly
35 basis points.
The Bank of Canada is expected
to hold its policy rate in the 2.0%–2.5% range, while the benchmark 10-year
Government of Canada yield is projected to stay largely within the 3.0%–3.5%
range for the year.
What to Watch Next Week
• April
Labour Force Survey — the key data release of the week
• Federal
Spring Economic Update — the government will release its fiscal update,
with last November's budget pegging the FY 2026/27 deficit at 2.0% of GDP
•
CUSMA Trade Negotiations — U.S. and Canadian
officials flagged several irritants this week, including tariffs on aluminum,
steel, autos, and lumber, with the original July 1 deadline looking
increasingly unlikely to be met
The Bottom Line
Canadian markets remain in a
tug-of-war between solid long-term fundamentals and near-term headwinds —
geopolitical uncertainty, earnings misses, and softening consumer demand.
Investors should keep a close eye on next week's jobs data and the Spring Economic
Update for signals on where fiscal and monetary policy is headed.
Published by MoneySavings.ca / Canadian Money Brief
| May 2, 2026
This article
is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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