Week of May 4–9, 2026 | Canadian Money Brief
It was a week of cross-currents for Canadian investors — geopolitical tension, a rate hold in Ottawa, a disappointing jobs print, and a market that ultimately found its footing heading into the weekend. Here's everything you need to know.
TSX: A Wobbly Week With a Friday Bounce
The S&P/TSX Composite had a rough mid-week stretch but clawed back lost ground by Friday. The index fell 0.4% to close at 33,857 on Thursday, as investors locked in recent gains ahead of Friday's U.S. and Canadian jobs data. By Friday morning, however, sentiment improved: the S&P/TSX gained more than 0.5%, trading back above 34,000, as markets assessed the North American labour backdrop and the outlook for Middle East energy supply.
The week's volatility was largely geopolitics-driven. Markets came into the week focused on earnings, but oil and geopolitics stole the spotlight — pulling investors between a constructive earnings backdrop and worries that higher oil prices could force a rethink of inflation and the interest rate outlook.
Bank of Canada: Holding the Line at 2.25%
No surprises from Governor Tiff Macklem this week. The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.
The BoC's messaging was measured but watchful. The Governing Council outlined three key messages: Canada is being buffeted by global events but the economy is growing; higher global energy prices are pushing inflation up after more than a year near the 2% target; and monetary policy is focused on ensuring that the jump in energy prices does not become persistent inflation, while helping the economy adjust to global headwinds.
On growth, the Bank projects GDP expansion of 1.2% in 2026, rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028, as exports and business investment gradually resume. The next rate announcement is scheduled for June 10, 2026.
Jobs: Canada Misses the Mark
Friday's labour report was the week's biggest surprise for markets — and not in a good way. The unexpected decline in Canadian employment reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada will refrain from raising interest rates this year. Markets had been forecasting a gain of roughly 15,000 jobs in April, with unemployment holding at 6.7%. The labour market remains soft, with subdued employment growth over the past year and job losses in sectors targeted by U.S. tariffs, keeping the unemployment rate in the 6.5%–7% range.
Energy: Middle East Uncertainty Weighs on Oil & Stocks
Crude oil and Canadian energy equities remained under pressure for most of the week. Energy shares weighed on the TSX as oil prices declined on expectations that a potential U.S.–Iran agreement could lead to a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Canadian Natural Resources fell 2.1% and Suncor lost 1.0%.
By Friday, however, although clashes continued and attacks on the UAE renewed tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. was still awaiting Iran's response to its proposal to end the conflict, keeping oil prices at elevated levels.
Stock Movers of the Week
It wasn't all gloom. A few standout performers gave investors reason to cheer:
- Shopify rebounded 5.8% after steep losses earlier in the week.
- Wheaton Precious Metals gained 4.1% after reporting results above expectations.
- BMO rose more than 1% and CIBC advanced nearly 1%.
- Emera climbed 1.4% after reporting adjusted EPS above forecasts.
On the downside, Rogers Sugar posted weaker-than-expected second-quarter revenue.
What to Watch Next Week
- Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report — releasing May 28
- Ongoing Middle East ceasefire negotiations and their impact on oil supply
- Further Q1 earnings from major Canadian companies
- Any new signals from the U.S. on trade tariffs affecting Canadian exports
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
— The Canadian Money Brief Team | moneysavings.ca/canadian-money-brief
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