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Why Your Grocery Bill Keeps Rising — And What You Can Do About It

  It's not just gas. Canada's food inflation hit its highest pace in over a year in May 2026 — and produce prices are leading the charge. MoneySavings.ca  |  June 27, 2026 If your grocery receipts have been giving you sticker shock lately, you're not imagining things. Canada's official inflation figures, released by Statistics Canada on June 22, confirm that food prices are climbing faster than the overall cost of living — and have been for 16 consecutive months . If you're trying to figure out why your weekly shop costs so much more than it did a year ago, here's a plain-English breakdown — and some practical steps you can take to soften the blow. By the Numbers — May 2026 (Statistics Canada) Overall CPI: +3.2% year over year (highest since December 2023) Grocery prices (food purchased from stores): +4.3% year over year Fresh vegetables: +9.0% year over year Fresh fruit: +5.3% year over year Tomatoes: +45.2% year over year Lettuce: +10.7% year over year G...
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5 Things to Know Today — Saturday, June 27, 2026

 


Your fast briefing on what's moving Canadian money this weekend.

1

Inflation Is Back Above 3% — And Groceries Aren't Helping

Canada's annual inflation rate climbed to 3.2% in May, its highest reading since December 2023, beating analyst expectations of 3.0%. The main culprit was gasoline, where prices surged 33.2% year over year as Middle East supply disruptions continued to ripple through Canadian pumps.

Grocery shoppers felt it too: food purchased at stores rose 4.3% annually, with fresh vegetables up 9% and tomatoes spiking a staggering 45.2% — a direct result of poor weather and reduced planting in Mexico following U.S. tariff uncertainty. The silver lining is that shelter inflation continued to ease, sitting at just 1.7%, and economists expect May to mark the peak for headline inflation this year as oil prices have since moderated.

Source: Statistics Canada, June 22, 2026

2

Bank of Canada Holds at 2.25% — Fifth Pause in a Row

On June 10, the Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% for a fifth consecutive hold, citing the need to balance two competing forces: the inflationary pull of high oil prices and the drag on the economy from U.S. trade uncertainty. Governor Tiff Macklem said policymakers are "looking through" the war's near-term energy impact but would not allow it to become persistent inflation.

The next rate decision is July 15, 2026. Markets currently price in a 96% chance of another hold, though a potential rate hike by year-end can't be ruled out if core inflation continues to creep up. For Canadians with variable-rate mortgages or HELOCs, the rate environment remains in a holding pattern for now.

Source: Bank of Canada, June 10, 2026

3

Canada Added 88,000 Jobs in May — Far More Than Expected

May brought a much-needed jolt to Canada's labour market. The economy added 88,000 jobs — nearly nine times the 10,000 analysts had forecast — pushing the unemployment rate down to 6.6% from 6.9% in April. It was the strongest single month of job creation since December 2024.

The gains were led by construction (+27,000), information and culture (+19,000), and transportation (+19,000). Ontario added 42,000 positions and saw its unemployment rate fall to 7.0%, its lowest since September 2024. The bad news: the country is still down roughly 24,000 jobs year-to-date, meaning May erased most — but not all — of the losses from earlier in 2026.

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, June 5, 2026

4

CUSMA Review Kicks Off July 1 — What It Means for Your Wallet

The mandatory six-year review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) officially triggers on July 1, 2026. Canada has formally asked the U.S. and Mexico to renew the deal for another 16 years, but trade observers warn that a quick, clean renewal is unlikely given current tensions. The Trump administration is pushing for changes including a 50% U.S. content minimum for vehicles and expanded access to Canada's dairy market.

If negotiations stall, the agreement stays in force but shifts into annual reviews — a "zombie CUSMA" scenario that could keep business and consumer uncertainty elevated for years. With 75% of Canada's exports heading to the U.S., any prolonged trade ambiguity can ripple through jobs, supply chains, and the prices Canadians pay for everyday goods.

Sources: CBC News, CPA Ontario, June 2026

5

TSX Closes Near 35,000 as Oil Prices Cool and Banks Rally

The S&P/TSX Composite closed Friday at approximately 34,980, up about 0.37% on the day, as falling oil prices eased inflation fears and lifted financial stocks. TD Bank, RBC, and BMO all gained ground, while gold miners — including Agnico Eagle and Barrick — benefited from slightly firmer gold prices.

Technology was the weak spot, with Shopify slipping roughly 1% amid broader uncertainty in the tech sector. The index has powered to near all-time highs in 2026, supported by the energy sector's strong performance and improving sentiment about the Canadian economy's ability to absorb trade headwinds. For investors, the key near-term trigger remains the CUSMA review outcome and the Bank of Canada's July 15 decision.

Source: MSN Money / TMX, June 26, 2026

📌 Mark Your Calendar: Next Bank of Canada rate decision — Wednesday, July 15, 2026. June CPI data releases Monday, July 20, 2026.

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