Canadian and global markets are attempting to stabilize this Monday morning after a punishing end to last week — and with one of the most closely watched Bank of Canada rate decisions in recent memory arriving in just two days, investors have plenty to keep them on edge.
What Happened Friday
Friday's selloff was sharp and broad. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite tumbled 4.18% — its steepest single-day decline since April 2025 — closing at 25,709. The S&P 500 fell 2.64% to 7,383, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost roughly 695 points (−1.35%) to end at 50,866.
The catalyst was a brutal rotation out of chip stocks. Broadcom had already disappointed investors mid-week by failing to raise its AI chip guidance, and the selling gathered momentum on Friday. Marvell Technology and Micron plunged approximately 16% and 13%, respectively, while Nvidia, Intel, and AMD all shed between 6% and 11%. Compounding the pain: a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for May pushed Treasury yields higher, dimming hopes for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts and rattling rate-sensitive growth stocks.
In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite fell 2.28% to close at 34,413 on Friday. Energy names bore the brunt, with the TSX Capped Energy Index dropping over 4% as crude oil retreated from recent highs.
Key Number: The Nasdaq's 4.18% Friday drop was its worst session since the tariff turmoil of April 2025 — a reminder of just how quickly AI-driven euphoria can reverse.
Monday's Tone: Cautious Stabilization
As markets reopened Monday, the dominant theme is caution. Asian markets saw significant pressure in chip-heavy markets — South Korea's KOSPI fell sharply — while European equities held up comparatively better. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, remains elevated following Friday's spike of roughly 40%, signalling that investors have not yet found their footing.
Oil prices remain a wildcard. After retreating from recent highs late last week, fresh Middle East tensions — including renewed Israeli strikes on Iran — are pushing crude back up, reigniting inflation concerns and complicating the outlook for both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve. WTI crude is hovering around the $90–94 range, a level that continues to squeeze Canadian consumers at the pumps and raises questions about the BoC's next move.
Gold, meanwhile, is pulling back slightly. Bullion closed below its 200-day moving average on Friday after the strong U.S. jobs report bolstered the case for a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 — a scenario that generally weighs on non-yielding precious metals. That said, the People's Bank of China reported its largest monthly gold purchase since 2024, providing a floor under prices.
The Canadian Dollar
The loonie is holding near the 71.7 U.S. cent range, edging slightly lower amid broad U.S. dollar strength following Friday's blockbuster jobs data. For Canadian households, a softer dollar means imported goods — from groceries to electronics — remain expensive, adding to persistent cost-of-living pressure.
Eyes on Wednesday: Bank of Canada
The week's defining event arrives Wednesday morning: the Bank of Canada's June 10 rate decision. The BoC has held its overnight rate at 2.25% since ending its easing cycle late last year, and most analysts expect that to remain unchanged. Labour market strength — a consistent theme in recent months — keeps rate hikes on the table for the second half of 2026, even as the broader Canadian economy navigates a technical recession and rising inflation fuelled partly by Middle East-driven energy costs.
The Bank's April MPR projected Canadian GDP growth of just 1.2% for 2026 and forecast inflation peaking near 3% before easing back toward the 2% target by early 2027. With CPI having climbed to 2.4% in March — pushed higher by the largest single-month gas price increase on record — the BoC faces a genuine dilemma: ease to support a struggling economy, or hold (or hike) to contain persistent inflation.
What to Watch Wednesday: Governor Tiff Macklem's press conference at 10:30 a.m. ET will be scrutinized for any signal about the direction of rates into the second half of 2026. The BoC's July MPR, due July 15, will provide the next detailed forecast update.
Global Markets at a Glance
Asia: Chip-heavy markets in South Korea and Japan led regional declines Monday as the Nasdaq selloff rippled overnight. South Korea's KOSPI was among the hardest hit, while mainland Chinese and Hong Kong markets showed relative resilience.
Europe: European equities held up better than their Asian counterparts, though markets there remain sensitive to oil price movements tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions. Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose above 2.71% as U.S. Treasury pressure spread globally.
Commodities: Beyond oil and gold, watch the energy complex closely this week. Continued instability in the Middle East has made energy markets exceptionally volatile — a dynamic that has a direct read-through to Canadian inflation and the BoC's calculus.
What Canadians Should Know
For Canadian investors and households, the next 48 hours are unusually consequential. The Bank of Canada's Wednesday decision will set the tone for mortgage renewals, variable-rate borrowing costs, and broader consumer confidence heading into the summer. Meanwhile, the TSX's heavy weighting in energy and financials means it remains particularly sensitive to both oil price swings and rate expectations — a double exposure that cuts both ways.
Elsewhere this week: U.S. CPI data arrives Wednesday alongside the BoC decision, Oracle Corp. reports earnings, and Adobe and Dollarama report on Thursday. Any upside surprise on U.S. inflation could amplify Friday's sell-off narrative and push yields — and volatility — even higher.
Stay with MoneySavings.ca for full coverage of Wednesday's Bank of Canada rate decision.
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