Markets Update: Futures Bounce After U.S. Iran Strikes; BoC Holds at 2.25%

 

Thursday, June 11, 2026  |  Canadian Money Brief

Markets are looking to snap a two-day losing streak this Thursday. After a brutal Wednesday session — where the Dow shed more than 950 points and U.S. inflation hit a three-year high — futures are pointing higher this morning as investors assess the latest escalation, and swift conclusion, of U.S. strikes on Iran overnight. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada made its policy call yesterday, and Canadians are digesting what a fifth straight rate hold means for their wallets.

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🍁 Canada: BoC Holds, TSX Eyes a Rebound

The dominant Canadian story is the Bank of Canada's decision yesterday to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% — the fifth consecutive hold, and widely expected. Governor Tiff Macklem struck a notably cautious tone, signalling the next move could go either way: a cut if the trade war with the U.S. deepens and weighs on the economy, or a hike if Middle East-driven energy inflation becomes entrenched.

Canadian inflation came in at 2.8% in April (largely energy-driven), while the core rate sat at a more comfortable 2.1%. The Bank expects inflation to hover near 3% before easing back toward its 2% target. GDP growth is projected at just 1.2% this year — reflecting a technical recession, persistent trade uncertainty, and the ongoing mortgage renewal wave squeezing household budgets.

On Bay Street, the S&P/TSX Composite closed Wednesday below 34,500, with financials and miners hit hardest. Agnico Eagle dropped 4.7%, Barrick fell 5%, and Shopify slipped 2.1% in line with global tech weakness. Energy names bucked the trend — Cenovus gained 2.7% and Canadian Natural Resources added 1.9% as oil prices climbed on geopolitical fears. Thursday's open looks more positive, with U.S. futures pulling the TSX higher.

The Canadian dollar is holding around 72–73 cents U.S., broadly stable as investors weigh the rate hold against a stronger-than-expected May jobs report (88,000 jobs added) that has complicated the rate-cut narrative heading into summer.

💡 What It Means for You

With the prime rate staying at 4.45%, variable-rate mortgage holders see no immediate change to their payments. If you're up for renewal this year, the BoC's next decision on July 15 is the one to watch — along with any shift in oil-driven inflation data between now and then. For now, variable rates in the mid-3% range remain the lowest-cost mortgage option in Canada.

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🇺🇸 United States: Futures Bounce After Iran Strikes Wrap Up

Wednesday was a tough session on Wall Street. U.S. CPI came in at 4.2% — a three-year high — fuelled by energy prices inflated by the ongoing Middle East conflict. Combined with fresh Iran strike headlines and a broad tech selloff, all three major indexes closed sharply lower:

Index	Wed. Close	Change
Dow Jones	49,918.78	▼ 1.87%
S&P 500	7,266.99	▼ 1.62%
Nasdaq	25,169.50	▼ 1.98%

Thursday morning is a different story. After U.S. forces completed a fresh round of overnight strikes on Iran — with Iranian retaliatory missiles intercepted over Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan — markets are reading the swift conclusion as a de-escalation signal. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.8%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose over 1%, and Dow futures gained roughly 378 points in premarket trading. Chip stocks are leading the bounce: Micron, AMD, and Intel are all higher premarket, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF up 3%.

Investors are also watching Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI) report. Economists expect wholesale inflation to rise 0.7% month-over-month — a significant pullback from April's 1.4% — which, if it comes in soft, could ease some of the inflation anxiety gripping markets this week.

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🛢 Oil: Volatile But Pulling Back

Crude oil remains the market's wild card. Prices surged again Wednesday night as U.S. strikes hit Iranian positions, briefly pushing Brent crude above $96/barrel. As of Thursday morning, both benchmarks are retreating: WTI is around $89.25/barrel (▼ 0.87%) and Brent is near $92.05/barrel (▼ 1.13%). The Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk to monitor — any sustained disruption to tanker traffic through that chokepoint would send prices sharply higher and reignite global inflation fears.

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🌎 Global Markets: Europe and Asia Cautiously Positive

European markets are reflecting guarded optimism this morning as the Iran situation appears, at least temporarily, contained. Gold futures eased slightly to around $4,112/oz as safe-haven demand softened. The euro area continues to face headwinds from elevated energy costs — growth there remains subdued, and the European Central Bank faces a similar balancing act between inflation and economic fragility.

Asian markets were mixed overnight. Japan's export-sensitive sectors tracked uncertainty in tech and geopolitics, while investors across the region await clarity on Strait of Hormuz shipping conditions, which carry direct supply-chain implications for Pacific trade.

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📌 Bottom Line for Thursday

The key themes driving markets are all interconnected: U.S.–Iran tensions are pushing oil up, oil is pushing inflation up, inflation is keeping central banks on hold (or threatening hikes), and uncertainty across all of the above is keeping investors on edge. The Bank of Canada's explicit nod to two-way risk — rates could go up or down — reflects just how unclear the path ahead really is. Watch the U.S. PPI print this morning, any Strait of Hormuz headlines, and TSX energy stocks as the key movers for the day.