Global equity markets closed Friday, June 27 with a familiar story: technology stocks under pressure, energy shares retreating on easing Middle East supply fears, and the Toronto Stock Exchange managing to hold its ground better than most. Here is what happened across every major market and what Canadian investors should be watching this week.
🇨🇦 Canada — TSX Composite
| Index | Close (Jun 27) | Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 34,980 | ▲ +0.4% |
The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% on Friday to close at 34,980, supported by strength in the mining and technology sectors. Mining shares climbed on higher gold prices, helped by a weaker U.S. dollar and softening expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes following the latest U.S. PCE inflation data. Canada and Japan also advanced cooperation on mining projects, including potential joint stockpiling discussions. Barrick Gold gained 1.6%, while Franco-Nevada rose 2.3%.
On the tech side, Shopify surged 4.6% — backed by its Spring '26 product rollout — while Constellation Software added 1.9%. The notable laggard was Celestica, which fell 6.6%, tracking broader weakness on Wall Street's semiconductor names. Energy shares were the drag: Canadian Natural Resources and Suncor Energy both shed more than 1% as oil prices retreated on signs that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was improving. Major banks also traded lower, with RBC, TD, and BMO each down roughly 0.5%.
🇺🇸 United States
| Index | Close (Jun 27) | Change |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,354.02 | ▼ −0.05% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,876.11 | ▼ −0.09% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,297.62 | ▼ −0.24% |
Wall Street closed Friday in muted negative territory, with Friday marking the Nasdaq Composite's fifth consecutive losing session. Chipmakers led the decline as investors trimmed positions after Thursday's rally fuelled by bullish guidance from Micron. Micron itself fell 6.7%, while Nvidia slid 1.6% and Broadcom dropped 3.7%. Reports surfaced that OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO to 2027 — citing SpaceX's poor post-debut performance and elevated AI sector volatility — which further chilled enthusiasm for the sector.
For the week, the S&P 500 lost nearly 2% and the Nasdaq fell 4.6%, while the Dow held up relatively well, gaining 0.6% over the same period. Alphabet replaced Verizon in the Dow during the week, adding some tech exposure to the index. The broader selloff was partially cushioned by easing oil prices, which reduced near-term inflation concerns and the likelihood of aggressive Fed rate hikes. Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan showed five-year inflation expectations falling to 3.3%.
This week's key U.S. catalysts: Monday's U.S. stock futures rose on reports that Washington and Tehran have agreed to pause attacks ahead of peace talks resuming in Doha. This de-escalation could offer a partial floor under equity markets early in the week. Investors will also watch the June jobs report and ISM Manufacturing PMI for further signals on Fed policy direction.
🇪🇺 Europe
| Index | Close (Jun 27) | Change |
|---|
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,512 | ▼ −0.17% |
| DAX (Germany) | 24,679.49 | ▲ +0.03% |
| CAC 40 (France) | 8,349.08 | ▼ −0.43% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,215.38 | ▼ −0.10% |
European markets ended Friday on a mixed but mostly subdued note, dragged down by the retreating oil price and the same Wall Street technology weakness that weighed on global sentiment. The FTSE 100 dropped 18 points, with energy majors BP and Shell falling 2% and 0.8% respectively, and banks like HSBC slipping more than 1.5%. Rolls-Royce also declined 1.4%. Standout gainers included AstraZeneca (+1.4%), Unilever (+0.7%), and British American Tobacco (+1.5%), which helped limit losses.
The DAX barely clung to positive territory, while France's CAC 40 was among the weaker performers. Despite Friday's pullback, the FTSE 100 still gained 1.5% for the week. Broader European sentiment is being managed carefully — the region continues to absorb higher energy costs from the Middle East conflict, and Germany has already revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast down to 0.5%.
🌏 Asia-Pacific
| Index | Close (Jun 27) | Change |
|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 69,361 | ▼ −4.15% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 22,672 | ▼ −1.76% |
| SSE Composite (Shanghai) | 4,073.90 | ▲ +1.16% |
Japan was the week's sharpest casualty in Asia. The Nikkei 225 plunged 4.15% on Friday — its worst single-day performance in months — closing at 69,361 and breaking convincingly below the psychologically significant 70,000 level. The culprit was SoftBank Group, which cratered nearly 13% on the OpenAI IPO delay report. Given SoftBank's enormous AI exposure through its Vision Fund, the news raised fundamental questions about the timeline for AI monetization. Semiconductor-adjacent names followed suit: Kioxia Holdings fell 11.2%, Advantest dropped 9.6%, and Tokyo Electron lost 3.2%. Also complicating the picture, Tokyo's core inflation data showed acceleration for the first time in eight months — reinforcing Bank of Japan rate hike expectations, which add headwinds for exporters through a stronger yen.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng extended losses, falling roughly 1.8% as technology and financial shares came under selling pressure in the broader AI sentiment rotation. The notable outlier was mainland China's Shanghai Composite, which gained 1.16% — partly supported by continued policy optimism and southbound inflows that have been propping up Hong Kong equities in recent weeks.
🛢️ Commodities
| Commodity | Price (Jun 27) | Change |
|---|
| WTI Crude Oil (USD/bbl) | ~$68.86 | ▼ ~−4% |
| Gold (USD/oz) | ~$4,040 | ▲ Slight gain |
Oil fell nearly 4% toward $69 per barrel on Friday — its lowest level since late February — as shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz continued to pick up following the preliminary U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Tanker traffic has been recovering steadily, and the easing of supply fears has brought WTI crude back close to pre-conflict levels. This is a meaningful development for Canadian consumers: lower oil prices should flow through to pump prices and ease some of the energy-driven inflation Canada has been experiencing. For Canadian energy producers like Canadian Natural Resources and Suncor, however, lower crude is a headwind to earnings.
Gold edged higher on Friday to approximately $4,040 per ounce, posting its second consecutive day of modest gains after the U.S. PCE inflation print came in broadly in line with expectations — easing near-term pressure on the Fed to hike further. Gold has been under significant pressure over the past several weeks, trading down sharply from its January all-time high near $5,589. The hawkish Fed pivot and rising real yields remain structural headwinds, though some analysts see the current level as a potential accumulation zone.
💱 Canadian Dollar
| Pair | Rate | Note |
|---|
| USD/CAD | ~1.4187 | CAD near 1-year low |
| CAD/USD | ~$0.7047 | ≈ 70.5 cents USD |
The Canadian dollar sank to approximately 1.42 per U.S. dollar in late June — a level not seen since roughly April 2025 — tracking broader G10 weakness as the outlook for a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve continues to support the greenback. Multiple FOMC members have projected more than one rate hike this year, while the Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark rate at 2.25%. The divergence between the two central banks' expected paths is weighing heavily on the loonie. For Canadians buying U.S. goods or travelling to the U.S., every dollar now costs you approximately $1.42 CAD, which is meaningfully more expensive than the $1.35 range seen earlier this year.
🏦 Bank of Canada Watch — July 15 Decision Approaching
The next Bank of Canada rate decision — and accompanying Monetary Policy Report — is set for July 15, 2026. The BoC has now held its overnight rate at 2.25% for five consecutive decisions. The June 10 hold reflected what one analyst described as a "rare two-directional bind": a soft domestic economy (Q1 GDP edged down 0.1%, unemployment hovering in the 6.5–7% range) on one side, and an elevated inflation risk from Middle East-driven energy prices on the other.
Canada's headline CPI rose to 3.2% in May 2026 — the highest since September 2023 — driven primarily by energy prices. Core inflation, however, has remained closer to the Bank's 2% target. With oil now retreating sharply toward $69, there is growing hope that headline inflation will moderate in the coming months, which could reduce pressure on the BoC to consider rate hikes. Most analysts currently expect another hold on July 15. Bond markets assign only a 1% probability of a rate hike at that meeting, though the September 2 decision has a 14% implied probability of a cut.
The July 15 decision will come with a full Monetary Policy Report and press conference from Governor Tiff Macklem — making it one of the more significant communications events of the year for Canadian mortgage holders and investors alike.
📅 What to Watch This Week
- U.S.-Iran Peace Talks (Doha): U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to meet this week in Qatar. Any positive outcome could further push oil lower and ease inflation concerns globally.
- U.S. Jobs Report (Friday, July 3): A key data point for the Fed's next move. Strong hiring reinforces the case for rate hikes; softer numbers could revive cut expectations.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: An early read on U.S. economic health and any tariff-related demand softening.
- Bank of Japan Q2 Tankan Survey (July 1): A closely watched business sentiment survey. Strong readings could reinforce BoJ rate hike expectations and drive yen appreciation — which affects Canadian commodity exporters competing in Asian markets.
- Bank of Canada (July 15): While no move is expected, Governor Macklem's press conference will be closely watched for tone on inflation and any guidance on whether a cut or hike is more likely later this year.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Market data reflects closing figures from Friday, June 27, 2026. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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