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CMHC Just Cut Its Housing Forecast — What It Means If You're Buying, Selling, or Renewing

  Published July 28, 2026 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation quietly downgraded its outlook for the rest of 2026 last week, and the new numbers are worth a look no matter which side of the housing market you're standing on. The federal housing agency's Summer 2026 update now calls for slower growth, softer home prices, fewer new builds and continued easing in rental markets right through the end of the year — with a split that leaves Ontario and B.C. looking a lot different from the Prairies and Quebec. Here's what's actually in the update, and what it means for your specific situation. What CMHC changed The agency's baseline call for 2026 is a Canadian economy growing at just 0.7%, with high borrowing costs, weak population growth and cautious buyers keeping a lid on demand even as affordability has technically improved. The practical result, nationally: Housing starts are expected to fall to about 241,400 units this year, down from 259,028 in 2025 Resale acti...

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Stocks Pull Back as Oil Climbs on Iran Tensions — June 4, 2026

Global equity markets are under pressure on Thursday as the Iran conflict continues to dominate headlines, with fresh hostilities pushing oil prices higher and dragging on stocks from Toronto to Tokyo. Canada's TSX is extending its pullback for a second day, Wall Street closed sharply lower on Wednesday, and the Nikkei retreated from its record-high close overnight. The throughline is the same: an unresolved Middle East conflict, elevated energy costs, and growing caution after a prolonged rally.

🇨🇦 Canada: TSX Extends Losses

The S&P/TSX Composite closed Wednesday (June 3) at 34,801, down 367 points or 1.05% — retreating from the record high reached on Tuesday. The selloff was broad: financials fell, with BMO down 1.5% and Brookfield losing 3.4% after announcing a joint venture with Concert Properties. Mining heavyweights were hit as gold prices declined, with Agnico Eagle off 3.6%, Barrick down 2.5%, and WPM shedding 3.5%. Technology names tracked Wall Street lower, with Shopify down 3% and Constellation Software dropping 4.7%. On Thursday, the TSX is trading in the 33,750–34,175 range, suggesting the index is looking at a second straight down session. The Canadian dollar holds near 72 cents U.S. (USD/CAD ~$1.38), little changed.

Index / AssetLevel / PriceChange
S&P/TSX Composite (June 3 close)34,801.54▼ −367.92 (−1.05%)
TSX (June 4 intraday)~33,750–34,175▼ Lower
CAD/USD~$0.72Steady
USD/CAD~$1.38Steady

Wall Street: Records Give Way to a Broad Selloff

After hitting all-time highs on both Monday and Tuesday, U.S. markets fell sharply on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 620 points, or 1.21%, closing at 50,687. The S&P 500 fell 0.74% to 7,553, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.89% to close at 26,853. Small caps were hit hardest — the Russell 2000 shed 1.31%. The catalyst was a combination of surging oil prices triggered by new Iranian attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, rising Treasury yields, and a rotation out of software and technology stocks. Earnings from Broadcom after the bell were a narrow miss on revenue, which is weighing on tech sentiment going into Thursday's session.

IndexClose (June 3)Change
Dow Jones Industrial Average50,687.07▼ −1.21%
S&P 5007,553.68▼ −0.74%
Nasdaq Composite26,853.98▼ −0.89%
Russell 20002,893.51▼ −1.31%

Europe: Broader Losses Than Expected

European markets closed notably weaker on Wednesday. Germany's DAX fell 1.31% to 24,795, France's CAC 40 dropped 0.71% to 8,150, and the UK's FTSE 100 declined 0.40% to 10,332 — reversing the slight gain it had posted in early trading. The pan-European STOXX 50 shed 0.89%. Airline stocks and automakers were among the worst performers, as sustained oil prices above $95 per barrel squeeze margins. Diplomatic signals from Washington suggesting Iran talks remain "active" helped prevent a deeper rout, but with no firm ceasefire deal in sight, European investors are in a cautious holding pattern.

IndexClose (June 3)Change
Germany DAX24,795.94▼ −1.31%
France CAC 408,150.42▼ −0.71%
UK FTSE 10010,332.30▼ −0.40%
EURO STOXX 506,053.57▼ −0.89%

Asia-Pacific: Nikkei Pulls Back from Record

In Thursday's Asia-Pacific session — the most recent overnight data for Canadian readers — Japan's Nikkei 225 fell approximately 1.5%, retreating toward the 67,000 level after Wednesday's record-setting close above 68,400. The pullback was driven by renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, a weak Broadcom earnings outlook that hit AI-related stocks hard, and caution from billionaire investor Ray Dalio, who warned that the AI sector is showing bubble-like characteristics. SoftBank Group fell 7.8%, Fujikura dropped 6.1%, and Kioxia Holdings slipped 1%. India's Sensex and Nifty 50 closed nearly flat on Thursday as investors await the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision due Friday.

IndexJune 4 SessionMove
Japan Nikkei 225~67,000▼ ~−1.5%
Japan Topix~3,964▼ −0.8%
India Sensex74,360▲ +0.02% (flat)
India Nifty 5023,416▲ +0.05% (flat)

Oil & Commodities: Still Elevated, Easing Slightly

Brent crude is hovering near US$97 per barrel on Thursday — down slightly on the day but still near multi-month highs driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. U.S. crude stockpiles have now fallen for six consecutive weeks, dropping nearly 8 million barrels last week alone — well above expectations — which is keeping oil prices elevated even as diplomatic efforts continue. WTI is trading just above $95 per barrel. For Canadians, this translates directly into sustained pressure at the gas pump heading into the summer driving season. Gold has eased to around US$4,437–$4,465 per ounce, pulling back from last week's levels as higher U.S. Treasury yields reduce appetite for non-yielding assets.

CommodityPrice (approx. June 4)Note
Brent Crude~$97.00 / bbl▼ −0.86% on day
WTI Crude~$95 / bblNear 3-session high
Gold (Spot)~$4,437–$4,465 / ozOff recent highs; +37% YOY

📌 The Big Picture for Canadians

Two days of TSX losses, weaker Wall Street closes, and a Nikkei pullback from its record high all point to the same thing: markets ran hard on AI optimism and are now colliding with the reality of an unresolved oil shock. For Canadian households, the near-term pain is real — elevated gasoline prices, a loonie stuck below 73 cents U.S., and persistent inflation risks that keep the Bank of Canada's next move uncertain. The silver lining, if there is one, is that Canadian energy producers benefit from elevated crude prices, which supports Alberta's economy and a portion of TSX earnings. Watch for any developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations — even a credible ceasefire signal could move markets sharply in the other direction.

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