Global markets were broadly higher on Friday as two big stories dominated trading: growing optimism that the United States and Iran are close to a peace deal, and the long-awaited Nasdaq debut of SpaceX — the largest initial public offering in history. Oil prices fell sharply on the geopolitical news, which helped ease inflation fears and gave stocks an additional lift heading into the weekend.
🇨🇦 Canada — TSX
The S&P/TSX Composite Index is trading higher Friday, building on Thursday's recovery after a volatile stretch tied to Middle East tensions. The TSX shed roughly 0.8% on Wednesday, touching a three-week low near 34,151, as U.S.–Iran hostilities escalated and the Bank of Canada held its key rate steady at 2.25% — as widely expected. Thursday's session reversed some of those losses as Trump called off a planned strike and signalled a deal was within reach, pushing TSX futures higher. Energy stocks remain in focus: with oil now retreating, Canadian producers like Cenovus and Canadian Natural Resources are giving back some recent gains, while financial stocks and rate-sensitive names are finding firmer footing. Shopify and gold miners like Agnico Eagle and Barrick Gold are also being watched closely. On the trade front, President Trump suggested Washington may not renew the CUSMA free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico even as negotiations continue — a recurring source of uncertainty for Canadian markets.
🇺🇸 United States — Wall Street
U.S. stocks closed strongly higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500 rising about 1.75% to close near 7,394 and the Dow Jones surging roughly 923 points to close above 50,841. The Nasdaq Composite gained approximately 2.54%, led by a sharp rebound in semiconductor stocks — the iShares Semiconductor ETF added more than 8%, with Micron, AMD, and Intel all posting strong gains. Friday morning, futures are edging higher as investors react to fresh signals of a potential U.S.–Iran peace deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic. All eyes are also on SpaceX, trading on the Nasdaq for the first time today under the ticker SPCX, with shares priced at $135 each. The IPO is expected to raise approximately $75 billion — surpassing every other public offering in history — and values Elon Musk's company at roughly $1.78 trillion. The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment reading for June is also due this morning, with markets watching for any sign of improvement after a run of multi-year lows. The VIX volatility index, which spiked above 22 earlier in the week, has retreated meaningfully on the improved geopolitical tone.
🌍 Global Markets
European markets opened higher Friday, with the FTSE 100, DAX, and CAC 40 all advancing as the prospect of a U.S.–Iran deal lifted sentiment across the continent. European equities had been under pressure this week as Middle East tensions stoked inflation fears — energy stocks led losses while defence names outperformed. With oil pulling back, that dynamic is starting to reverse. Asian markets also moved higher overnight, supported by the same geopolitical tailwind and a weaker U.S. dollar. The dollar index slipped as peace deal rumours circulated, providing a modest boost to currencies and commodity-linked assets across the Asia-Pacific region.
🛢️ Oil & Commodities
WTI crude oil fell to around $84–$85 USD per barrel on Friday — a drop of roughly 3.8% on the day and its lowest level in nearly two months. The catalyst: President Trump's suggestion that a peace agreement with Iran could be signed as early as this weekend, with Iran's state-affiliated Fars news agency reporting that Tehran is likely to accept. The agreement is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and include Iranian commitments to abandon nuclear weapons development. For Canadian households, lower oil prices translate to some relief at the gas pump, though analysts caution the deal is not yet finalized. Gold is holding relatively steady, while Bitcoin (CAD) is trading around $87,990, up about 1.4% on the day.
💱 The Loonie
The Canadian dollar is trading around 71.4 cents U.S. (USD/CAD near 1.40), roughly in line with recent levels. The loonie is caught between two offsetting forces: falling oil prices — which typically weigh on CAD — and a softer U.S. dollar tied to fading safe-haven demand as Iran tensions ease. Bank of Canada's hold at 2.25% on Wednesday provided no surprise. Forecasters expect USD/CAD to remain in the 1.36–1.40 range through June, with any narrowing of the Canada–U.S. rate differential potentially supporting the loonie in the second half of the year.
📊 Quick Market Snapshot — June 12, 2026
| Index / Asset | Level / Price | Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | ~34,469 | +0.93% |
| S&P 500 (Thursday close) | 7,394 | +1.75% |
| Dow Jones (Thursday close) | 50,841 | +1.86% |
| Nasdaq Composite (Thursday close) | ~25,350 | +2.54% |
| FTSE 100 | ~10,348 | +0.91% |
| DAX | ~24,270 | +0.31% |
| CAC 40 | ~8,232 | +0.86% |
| WTI Crude Oil | ~$84.35 USD/bbl | −3.83% |
| CAD/USD (Loonie) | ~$0.714 USD | −0.48% |
| Bitcoin (CAD) | ~$87,991 | +1.37% |
What This Means for Canadians
If the U.S.–Iran deal is finalized this weekend, Canadians could see some near-term relief at the gas pump as global oil prices stabilize or fall further. For investors, the easing of geopolitical risk is broadly positive for both equity and bond markets — lower oil prices reduce inflation pressure and lessen the case for aggressive rate hikes. For Canadians watching their portfolios, the TSX's energy sector may face short-term headwinds from cheaper crude, but financials and consumer-facing names could benefit. The SpaceX IPO, while a U.S.-market event, also signals renewed appetite for large-scale public offerings — with Anthropic and OpenAI both reportedly laying early groundwork for potential IPOs that could collectively reshape investor interest in technology in the months ahead.
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